印度尼西亚总统普拉博沃在2024年终于上台，但他似乎并未吸取1998年亚洲金融危机的教训：当年经济崩溃引发大规模抗议，并推翻了苏哈托。他如今正在把权力集中到自己手中，同时让国家再次接近财政危机。

他的两项宠爱项目——免费校餐和8万个村级合作社网络——在伊朗战争前就已预计吞掉预算的10%，如今在能源紧张背景下更显不可承受。印尼仍受3%国内生产总值预算赤字上限约束，但如果他继续按现有路线行事，可能会放任赤字突破这一法律限额。

市场已经出现压力：政府利息支出占收入比重上升，评级机构考虑下调评级，外国资本已流出60亿美元，印尼盾兑美元更是贬值11%，跌至历史低点。与此同时，反对派被削弱、民间社会受压，若不改变方向，经济与民主都将继续恶化。

Indonesia’s president, Prabowo Subianto, came to power in 2024 after a quarter-century comeback, but he seems to have learned little from the 1998 Asian financial crisis, when economic collapse toppled Suharto. He is now centralising power and pushing the country toward another fiscal crisis.

His two pet projects—free school meals and a network of 80,000 village co-operatives—were already projected to consume 10% of the budget before the Iran war, and energy shortages have made them even less affordable. Indonesia still faces a 3% of GDP budget-deficit cap, but his current course could breach it.

Markets are already under strain: interest payments as a share of government revenue are rising, credit-rating agencies are considering a downgrade, $6bn in foreign capital has fled, and the rupiah has fallen 11% against the dollar to a record low. With opposition weakened and civil society intimidated, both economic discipline and democracy are deteriorating.

Source: Indonesia, the biggest Muslim-majority country, is on a risky path

Subtitle: Prabowo Subianto is eroding its finances—and its democracy

Dateline: 5月 14, 2026 11:25 上午