全球石油史上最大的一次供应冲击正迅速扩大：霍尔木兹海峡关闭已使约20亿桶、即全球年石油供应的5%损失，每关闭一天缺口就增加1400万桶。由于美伊和谈停滞，海峡重开似乎还要很多天。

然而油市却异常平静。布伦特原油期货约为每桶105美元，已从4月接近120美元的高点回落，也低于2022年俄乌战争后创下的129美元峰值，现货价格跌得更多，意味着原油比战争早期更充裕。

这种罕见的“迷你过剩”真实存在，但不能掉以轻心，因为真正的能源危机可能还要几周才到来。美国与中国这两个意外的支柱暂时缓冲了冲击：美国原油和成品油净出口升至每天900万桶，较去年同期高出近400万桶；中国的原油进口则比一年前少了每天450万桶。

The biggest supply shock in petroleum history is expanding fast: the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has already removed about 2bn barrels, or 5% of the world’s annual oil supply, and every day it stays closed the deficit grows by 14m barrels. With America-Iran peace talks stalled, reopening still seems many days away.

Yet oil markets look oddly calm. Brent crude futures are about $105 a barrel, down from nearly $120 in April and below the $129 peak after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, while spot prices have fallen even more, implying crude is more plentiful than earlier in the war.

That unusual mini-glut is real, but it should not comfort anyone for long, because a full energy disaster may still be weeks away. Two accidental buffers are helping: U.S. net exports of crude and refined products have risen to 9m b/d, nearly 4m b/d above a year earlier, while China is importing 4.5m b/d less crude than a year ago.

Source: Oil prices could soon rise convulsively

Subtitle: The present tranquility will not last

Dateline: 5月 14, 2026 11:24 上午