近两年内，英国首相基尔·斯塔默从承诺“拯救英国免于民粹主义”到迅速失势；5月7日英格兰地方议会、苏格兰和威尔士议会选举中工党惨败，引发议会党团反叛，且在发稿时他已面临至少一名认真的党魁挑战者。民调显示，自本月选举以来，只有29%的人希望他继续留任。

英国面临的经济数据同样黯淡：过去20年实际工资几乎没有增长；脱欧使英国人均GDP据一些研究下降了4%到8%；2008年至2023年，美国工人每小时产出增长21%，而英国仅增长7%。与此同时，英国政府债券收益率在G7中最高，反映出市场对其财政与增长前景的持续压力。

工党虽拥有165席的巨大多数，却因选票小幅波动在先过后得制下放大为席位剧烈变化而变得不稳定；斯塔默又在提高所得税和增值税上作出承诺，并未推出重大税制重置、福利改革或与欧盟的雄心和解。文章认为，英国并非无法治理，但若他继续留任，工党可能进一步左转，而债市会限制愚蠢的左翼政策；若更换领导人，则可能带来重启机会，尤其是在英国资产便宜、选民想要改变的情况下。

Less than two years after promising to save Britain from populism, Sir Keir Starmer has gone from victory to revolt: Labour’s drubbing in the May 7 elections in England, Scotland, and Wales has left him facing at least one serious leadership challenger, while only 29% now want him to stay in office. The context presents his failure as both political and personal.

The economic record is weak by the numbers. Real wages have barely grown in 20 years; Brexit is estimated to have cut GDP per person by 4% to 8%; and from 2008 to 2023 output per hour rose 21% in the United States but only 7% in Britain.

Labour’s 165-seat majority has not produced stability, because small vote shifts can cause large seat swings under first-past-the-post. Starmer’s constraints include a promise not to raise income tax or VAT, no major tax reset, no bold welfare reform, and no ambitious rapprochement with the EU; the article argues that Britain is not ungovernable, but that leadership change may be the better chance for renewal.

Source: Sir Keir Starmer has failed abjectly. He should go

Subtitle: Britain is not ungovernable—it just needs better governance

Dateline: 5月 14, 2026 11:25 上午