ChatGPT于2022年引爆AI热潮，也引发了关于“就业末日”的广泛担忧：70%的美国人认为AI会让找工作更难，近三分之一担心自己的工作。对大学毕业生、尤其是程序员岗位的招聘疲弱，进一步加剧了这种焦虑。

短期内尚无证据显示AI已在劳动力数据中摧毁大量岗位，但它的能力提升极快，企业AI支出也在大幅增长；Anthropic的年化经常性收入预计到6月底将达到500亿美元。与此同时，Goldman Sachs预计美国数据中心在2027年将占峰值电力需求的8.5%，高于2025年的4.1%，说明AI扩张正在重塑资源配置。

历史表明，技术进步未必减少总体劳动需求，但可能压低工资、改变收入分配，并引发政治反弹。作者认为，若AI冲击导致失业和利润高度集中，政府应通过资本、土地和自然资源税、继承税、工资保险、再培训，以及必要时对AI企业的部分公共持股来分担收益、缓冲冲击。

ChatGPT’s launch in 2022 ignited the AI boom and a broad fear of an “jobs apocalypse”: 70% of Americans think AI will make finding work harder, and nearly one-third worry about their own jobs. Weak hiring for college graduates, especially computer programmers, intensifies the anxiety.

For now, there is no evidence in labour-market data that AI has destroyed many jobs, but its capabilities are rising fast and business spending is surging; Anthropic’s annualised recurring revenue is projected to reach $50bn by the end of June. Goldman Sachs says U.S. data centres will take 8.5% of peak power demand in 2027, up from 4.1% in 2025, showing how AI expansion is reshaping resource use.

History suggests technology does not necessarily reduce total labour demand, but it can lower wages, shift income, and trigger political backlash. The argument is that governments should prepare now with taxes on capital, land, and natural resources, inheritance taxes, wage insurance, retraining, and, if needed, partial public ownership of AI firms to spread gains and soften disruption.

Source: Prepare for an AI jobs apocalypse

Subtitle: It is not here yet. But governments should lay a safety-net

Dateline: 5月 14, 2026 03:53 上午