美国市场显示出狂热过度：上市公司价值相对经济规模处于历史最高位。首席执行官们正采取七大高风险策略——加密金库、吸引散户、围绕人工智能的循环投资、激烈并购、债务暴食、表演式爱国以及不断上升的欺诈风险。例证包括MicroStrategy持有近700亿美元比特币（为超过100家采用企业加密策略的公司之一），其股价溢价已从早前超过2倍收窄到约20%。

散户狂热明显：Robinhood客户的借贷今年上涨了153%；American Eagle因推出演员广告股价上涨超过70%；SPAC重启，预计今年将有超过150家上市。AI生态呈现“懒惰”循环：Nvidia可能向OpenAI投入高达1000亿美元；OpenAI可能持有AMD约10%的股份；Nvidia还持有CoreWeave等相关企业股权。为扩张融资，企业大量举债：Meta发行了300亿美元债券，并有另约270亿美元的与数据中心相关的表外投资。

压力迹象正在显现：信贷息差仍然紧张、股市波动性偏低，但多项风险指标恶化——Blue Owl股价较年初峰值下跌超过40%；First Brands借入逾100亿美元后破产；Kimberly‑Clark拟以近500亿美元收购Kenvue；摩根大通承诺为“安全与韧性”提供1.5万亿美元融资；政府持有英特尔约10%股份。会计弹性、私募信贷与监管松动增加了欺诈风险，若AI支出或加密头寸回调，系统性溢出风险很大。

American markets show manic excess: listed companies' value relative to the economy is at an all-time high. CEOs are pursuing seven risky strategies—crypto treasuries, retail-targeting, circular AI investments, furious dealmaking, debt gluttony, performative patriotism, and rising fraud risk. Examples: MicroStrategy holds nearly $70bn of bitcoin (one of >100 firms using corporate crypto), and its share premium has shrunk from over 2x to about 20%.

Retail mania is pronounced: Robinhood clients' borrowing rose 153% year-to-date; American Eagle's stock jumped over 70% after an ad. SPACs are resurging with >150 expected IPOs. AI circularity: Nvidia may invest up to $100bn into OpenAI; OpenAI could own about 10% of AMD; Nvidia and related firms hold cross-stakes (CoreWeave, xAI). Corporates fund expansion with heavy debt: Meta sold $30bn of bonds and has another ~$27bn of off‑balance‑sheet data‑centre investment.

Signs of strain are emerging despite tight credit spreads and low equity volatility: Blue Owl shares are down >40% from the year's peak; First Brands borrowed more than $10bn before collapsing; Kimberly‑Clark agreed to pay nearly $50bn for Kenvue; JPMorgan pledged $1.5trn toward "resilience" financing; the government owns about 10% of Intel. Flexible accounting, opaque private credit and weaker oversight raise fraud and systemic spillover risks if AI spending or crypto positions unwind.