在油价重挫增长预期的背景下，市场风险偏好明显降温。油价已升至每桶100美元上方；三月份9日，Bloomberg Dollar Spot指数自战争爆发后累计上涨近2%，单周曾再升0.7%，创2026年1月16日以来高位；道琼斯？并未出场，而标普500仅周度下跌2%，但MSCI全球股指广义样本下跌3.7%。S&P 500期指在亚洲时段曾跌破2%，后因七国集团拟于周一讨论联合放油而部分回补。同期，空头加仓US股票ETF、Cboe VIX创自4月关税风波以来最高；10年期美债收益率上行4个基点至4.18%。此前市场曾把美联储下一次0.25个百分点降息定价在7月，如今更偏向9月，部分债券交易员甚至押注全年都不会降息。
特朗普称100美元油价是“值得付出的短期代价”，伊朗则指定Mojtaba Khamenei为新最高领导人并显示无意让步，进一步强化战争可能延续预期。尽管Yardeni过去在“Magnificent Seven”配置上判断准确，但其基准情景并未改变：他仍给“Roaring 2020s”赋予60%全年概率；对未来十年该情景看好度升至85%，对应“类似20世纪70年代滞胀再现”的概率为15%。他认为，一旦市场广泛预期滞胀，熊市出现概率将明显上升。
In a fast-moving environment, strategist Ed Yardeni raised the probability of a U.S. market meltdown to 35% from 20%, while cutting the probability of a meltup to 5% from 20%. He cited Iran’s escalating war, rising oil prices, and the risk of a prolonged conflict pushing energy costs higher as the core reason, which also raises inflation expectations and growth concerns. Yardeni wrote that the U.S. economy and stock market are “caught between Iran and a hard place,” with the Federal Reserve similarly constrained between higher inflation and rising unemployment risk.
The reaction has become more defensive despite limited relative strength in the U.S. market versus global peers. Oil has moved above $100 per barrel. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot index is up almost 2% since the war began and rose as much as 0.7% to the highest level since Jan. 16. The S&P 500 fell 2% for the week, while MSCI’s broad global equity gauge fell 3.7%. S&P 500 futures dropped more than 2% during Asian trading before recovering somewhat ahead of a Group of Seven discussion on possible emergency oil-reserve release. Hedge funds increased short positions in U.S. equity ETFs, the Cboe VIX Index reached its highest level since the April tariff turmoil, and the 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 4.18%. Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next 25-basis-point cut shifted from July to September, with some traders now betting on no cuts at all this year.
Donald Trump framed $100 oil as a “small price to pay,” while Iran’s choice of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader signaled resistance and a likely longer war, reinforcing downside risk. Although Yardeni previously called for underweight exposure to the Magnificent Seven, his base case remains unchanged: a “Roaring 2020s” scenario still has a 60% chance through year-end. Over the coming decade, he gives that outlook 85% probability, versus 15% for a “stagflating 1970s redux.” He warns that a shift in expectations toward stagflation raises the likelihood of a bear market.