证据横跨金融、科技与顾问数据。Meta 对多数员工下调股权奖励，同时优先投入 AI 招聘与资料中心投资；JPMorgan 与 Goldman 等大型银行向造雨者发放高额奖酬，而 HSBC 在更严格的绩效模型下，对部分银行家给予很少或没有奖金。Korn Ferry 指出，2025 年仍有接近 75% 的雇主采用广泛加薪，且约 50% 几乎为所有员工加薪；但 Mercer 显示即使美国 2026 年总薪资预算规划为 3.5%、相较 2025 年大致持平，仍有 83% 偏好该模式，Willis Towers Watson 也报告了类似的平台期。
新出现的型态是双层薪酬制度：整体接近 3.5% 的增幅，掩盖了部分员工加薪为 0，以及少数高影响力群体较大且「chunky」的增幅；Korn Ferry 受访者中，超过 50% 预期技能导向薪酬成长，超过 33% 预期更多类似超级明星、如「athlete-like」的差异化。变动薪酬正被用来替代固定成本的薪资成长，例如 CVS 在 2025 年获利更强后，将奖金提高到比基准高 42.3%，但劳工仍倾向偏好有保障的基本薪资上调。由科技支援的绩效制度与多步骤筛选或可提升配置效率，但通报结果也包括挫折感上升、倦怠风险增加，以及对表现稳定但非顶尖员工的留任压力。
By February 24, 2026, many employers were moving away from broad “peanut-butter” raises and toward concentrated pay increases for top performers, reflecting a labor market that has shifted from the post-Covid retention scramble to weaker white-collar hiring power for workers. The core logic is risk management: employees with scarce, high-value skills can credibly exit, while average performers face fewer outside options amid layoffs and slow recruitment, so managers increasingly treat continued employment as part of total reward for non-stars.
Evidence spans finance, technology, and consulting data. Meta cut equity awards for most staff while prioritizing AI hiring and data-center investment; major banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman delivered large payouts to rainmakers, while HSBC gave some bankers little or no bonus under a tougher performance model. Korn Ferry reports that in 2025 nearly 75% of employers still used broad raises and about 50% raised pay for nearly all staff, yet Mercer shows 83% still prefer that model even as US total salary budgets are planned at 3.5% in 2026, broadly flat versus 2025, and Willis Towers Watson reports a similar plateau.
The emerging pattern is a two-tier compensation system: aggregate increases near 3.5% mask zeros for some employees and larger “chunky” gains for a narrow high-impact group, with over 50% of Korn Ferry respondents expecting skills-based pay growth and over 33% expecting more superstar-style “athlete-like” differentiation. Variable pay is being used as a substitute for fixed-cost salary growth, illustrated by CVS lifting bonuses 42.3% above baseline after stronger 2025 profitability, but workers still tend to prefer guaranteed base-pay increases. Technology-enabled merit systems and multistep screening may improve allocation efficiency, yet reported outcomes include rising frustration, burnout risk, and retention pressure among solid but non-elite performers.