这场竞选的算术由硬数字界定：3月3日的初选、得州民主党上一次在全州获胜的1994年，以及共和党在四届现任参议员约翰·科宁与担任了十年州总检察长的肯·帕克斯顿之间的竞争。帕克斯顿的履历包括对拜登政府提起107次诉讼，并以30万美元和解一宗证券欺诈案；与此同时，民调显示他与科宁大致持平，而第三名候选人的出现提高了进入决选的概率。

投票率结构是关键趋势：由于决选通常吸引更少但意识形态更强烈的选民，顾问预计如果首轮无人直接胜出，帕克斯顿会获得优势。特朗普迟迟未作背书，以及两名候选人都在争夺MAGA支持，凸显出一种“基本盘优先”的模式，这种模式可能压过更广泛的可选举性。

民主党面临类似选择，但市场目前指向帕克斯顿对塔拉里科的大选对决，其中36岁的塔拉里科被塑造成更具跨阵营吸引力的人选，而这场参议院竞选已是史上成本最高的竞选之一。全国层面的数学同样严峻：民主党必须净增4席，这意味着要横扫所有摇摆州并至少再拿下2个偏共和党的州（如得州），因此任何反特朗普浪潮都必须异常强劲，才可能同时翻转该席位并潜在改写特朗普最后2年任期内的参议院控制权。

The race’s arithmetic is defined by hard numbers: March 3 primaries, Texas’s last statewide Democratic win in 1994, and a Republican contest between four-term incumbent John Cornyn and Ken Paxton after a decade as attorney-general. Paxton’s record includes suing the Biden administration 107 times and settling a securities-fraud case for $300,000, while polls show him and Cornyn roughly tied with a third candidate increasing runoff odds.

Turnout dynamics are the key trend: because runoffs usually draw fewer but more ideologically intense voters, consultants expect Paxton to gain an edge if no one wins outright in the first round. Trump’s unresolved endorsement and both candidates’ scramble for MAGA support underscore a base-first pattern that can outweigh broader electability.

Democrats face a parallel choice, but markets currently point to a Paxton-Talarico general election, with Talarico, 36, framed as the more crossover-capable option in an already among-the-costliest Senate races. The national math is steep: Democrats must net 4 seats, which implies sweeping toss-up states and adding at least 2 Republican-leaning states like Texas, so any anti-Trump wave would need to be unusually large to flip both the seat and potentially Senate control for Trump’s final 2 years.

Source: The battle to flip Texas

Subtitle: Democrats have a chance to score a stunning upset in November’s midterms

Dateline: 2月 26, 2026 04:27 上午 | Austi