马克龙于3月2日在法国四艘现役弹道导弹核潜艇之一前宣布，法国将扩大其核武库，并与7个无核欧洲国家建立“前沿威慑”伙伴关系。法国目前拥有290枚核弹头，略多于英国，但远少于美国约3700枚的库存，这标志着其长期“严格够用”原则的明显调整。

该安排涵盖比利时、丹麦、德国、希腊、荷兰、波兰和瑞典，并可能包括与法国核武装空军举行联合演习；法国目前每年进行4次此类演习。新理论经过18个月制定，不涉及在他国永久部署核武器、不提供明确核保护承诺，也不要求伙伴出资，同时挪威仍可选择加入。

分析人士将此次讲话称为法国30年来对核威慑政策最重大的更新，反映出在美国对欧洲承诺不确定之际，欧洲安全格局正在发生统计意义上的转变。尽管法国与英国的威慑力量仍无法完全替代美国的北约保护伞，而且2027年法国国内政治仍带来变数，但这一举措提高了任何侵略者的预期代价，并显示欧洲集体威慑正从模糊概念走向更具体的多国框架。

On March 2, Macron announced before one of France’s four operational ballistic-missile submarines that France would expand its nuclear arsenal and create a “forward deterrence” partnership with seven non-nuclear European countries. France now holds 290 warheads, slightly more than Britain but far below America’s roughly 3,700, marking a clear shift from its long-standing doctrine of “strict sufficiency.”

The arrangement includes Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden, and could involve joint exercises with France’s nuclear-armed air force; France currently runs such drills four times a year. The new doctrine took 18 months to design, does not permanently station nuclear weapons abroad, offers no explicit nuclear guarantee, and asks partners for no funding, while still leaving the door open to Norway.

Specialists call the speech France’s most significant nuclear-deterrence update in 30 years, highlighting a measurable strategic trend as uncertainty grows over the American commitment to Europe. Although the French and British deterrents still cannot fully replace the U.S. NATO umbrella and French politics in 2027 could reopen doubts, the move raises the expected cost of aggression and shows Europe’s collective deterrence shifting from an abstract idea toward a more concrete multinational framework.

Source: What France’s new nuclear-arms doctrine means for Europe

Subtitle: Emmanuel Macron will build more warheads and include allies

Dateline: 3月 05, 2026 07:21 上午 | Île Longue