CRFB 估算该方案可长期削减社会保障缺口约五分之一、75 年内可削减约三分之二;这一节流效果接近对 US$184,000 以上收入加征社保税的效果,但在未来 10 年左右较不会透过大规模加税来达成。文章认为,若夫妻皆位于终身高薪者(已达缴税上限)群体,通常已有其他储蓄能力,无需每户超过十万美元的联邦退休给付。
平均退休户每年实领仅约 US$34,000,约 0.05% 退休夫妻才会在初期触及 US$100,000。若未来 20–30 年无通膨与薪资调整,该门槛仍有可能逐步冲击中产以外的群体:二十年后 US$100,000 或将低于目前约 US$85,000 的美国中位数家庭收入,对上中阶层可能不是「多余」而是明显减益。若不改革,本文警告 2034 年起社保给付将可能下降超过 20%。此外,美国福利国家已从传统安全网扩张到中高阶层,连年收入六位数家庭也可能享受房屋、教育、学前等补贴,因此上限被视为把资源回到更需补助者的一种方向。
The article says that retired couples in the United States can realistically receive around US$100,000 per year in Social Security, and this is no longer unrealistic. If both spouses had taxable earnings at the cap for about 35 years (US$53,400 in 1991 and US$184,000 today) and each claimed benefits, the couple would receive about US$99,648 now, or nearly US$125,000 if both wait until age 70. Under the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) proposal, the cap would be US$50,000 per person at normal retirement age (now 67) and US$62,000 at age 70, with no inflation adjustment for the next 20 to 30 years, creating an explicit ceiling for high earners.
CRFB estimates that this would cut the Social Security shortfall by one-fifth in the long run and by three-fifths over 75 years. The projected savings are said to be similar to taxing earnings above US$184,000, but without the need for a broad tax increase, and it is treated as more progressive for roughly the first decade. The policy argument is that couples who reached the taxable ceiling over their careers are likely to have other savings and should not rely on more than a six-figure federal retirement benefit.
The average household benefit is only about US$34,000, and only about 0.05% of retired couples are initially in the US$100,000 zone. Still, if benefits were not indexed for inflation and wage growth for 20 to 30 years, the higher cap could gradually affect non-rich households too; in two decades US$100,000 may be near or below ordinary median income of about US$85,000, becoming a non-trivial loss for upper-middle households. Without reform, benefits are expected to fall by more than 20% after 2034. The broader debate is that Social Security has evolved from a poverty floor to a benefit system also covering middle and upper-middle families, and even six-figure households can receive subsidies for housing, education, and early childhood programs, so a cap is framed as retargeting support toward those with fewer alternatives.