入侵Kharg的风险除军事外还牵涉政治与战争扩张。已有十余名美军人员阵亡，夺取并驻守Kharg将大幅提高美军伤亡暴露，且岛上主要居民为石油工人，民间伤亡风险上升。将战争从空袭扩展为陆地作战，也可能激化美国国内反战压力并拖长冲突。即使Donald Trump称可“很容易”夺取Kharg，也面临地理与防御难题：航母舰艇须先经霍尔木兹海峡进入波斯湾，可能遭受岸基飞弹与无人机、袭击艇及水雷威胁；即使在湾外由空运输送地面部队，飞行机具同样暴露。伊朗议会议长Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf曾表示伊朗部队已待命，而美国中情指挥部也称3月13日已摧毁导弹与地雷相关设施，但岛上与本土抵抗仍可能持续。
若Kharg运输受阻，全球油价将受牵连。文章指出油价已突破每桶100美元，且多数海湾产油国仍受霍尔木兹受限影响；在此背景下，Kharg一旦中断会加剧波动。伊朗约占全球石油产量3%，但其Kharg出口量仍高于多数OPEC成员；且大部分出口销往中国，短期内将需外部补充。伊朗可能回击：提升中东能源设施袭击，并促使Iran-backed Houthi在红海攻击航运，间接冲击沙乌地阿拉伯改道出口。结果是全球油气供给更不稳，进一步推高通膨，进而抬高汽油成本并加剧美国中期选举前的民生压力。Kharg储油设施可存约3000万桶（约4.77百万立方米），可泊靠8艘油轮，日装船能力逾600万桶（约0.95百万立方米），高峰可达1000万桶（约1.59百万立方米）。
Kharg Island, lying 15 miles (24 kilometers) off the Iranian mainland, is almost the only export chokepoint for about 90% of Iran’s crude. Exports have fallen only slightly after U.S. and Israeli strikes because Iran still sends its own ships through the Strait of Hormuz while restricting passage to most other vessels. A U.S. strike wave in mid-March reportedly targeted military assets and did not seriously disrupt oil handling facilities. If U.S. action moved from rhetoric to seizing or “obliterating” Kharg, as Donald Trump suggested, that would be a major escalation: Kharg handles around 1.5 million barrels per day (about 0.24 million m³/day), so control of it could sharply cut Iran’s export revenue. Iran’s alternative terminal at Jask, opened in 2021, has loaded only five tankers, and Iranian crude exports during Trump's first term under “maximum pressure” had fallen to less than one-third of current levels, showing how central Kharg remains.
The risks of invasion go beyond capability claims. More than a dozen U.S. servicemembers have already been killed, and seizing and holding Kharg would likely increase casualties, including civilians because the island is mainly populated by oil workers. A ground operation would expand the conflict beyond airstrikes, increase domestic opposition in the United States, and likely become a longer commitment. Even if the island could be taken, moving forces is difficult: ships would have to transit the Strait and the Persian Gulf, where missiles, drones from shore, attack boats, and sea mines are likely threats; airlift from outside the Gulf would still face similar vulnerability. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the Iranian parliament, has said Iranian forces are waiting for U.S. troops on the ground, while Iran could also respond with a scorched-earth approach against its own oil assets. (Key numbers: 3, 13)
Disruption at Kharg would have market-wide effects. Global oil prices are already above $100 per barrel while most Gulf producers face transit constraints through the Strait. Iran accounts for only about 3% of global oil output, yet Kharg exports still exceed those of most OPEC members, and most of its crude goes to China, which would need replacement supply quickly. Iran might escalate attacks on regional energy infrastructure, and Iran-backed Houthi militants could increase attacks on Red Sea shipping used as an alternative route by Saudi exports. Kharg stores up to 30 million barrels (about 4.77 million m³), can berth eight tankers, and can load over 6 million barrels per day (about 0.95 million m³/day), up to 10 million barrels (about 1.59 million m³/day) if needed. Higher oil prices would raise inflation pressures globally, including U.S. gasoline costs, with household affordability becoming a major political issue before the midterm elections.