← 返回 Avalaches

在唐纳·特朗普(Donald Trump)于2025年4月2日以“Liberation Day”宣布全球关税,核心目标是缩小美国对亚太约7,600亿美元(USD 760 billion)的贸易逆差后一年,实际结果并未落实“Make in USA”承诺。多数亚洲笔记型电脑与电子产品因豁免而未直接承担对等关税,但中国产品仍受高达20%的芬太尼相关税,且在贸易冲突高峰时中国关税最高达125%。Bloomberg根据报关资料显示,越南出口到美国的笔记型电脑与游戏主机首次超过中国。中国对美出口减少了510亿美元(USD 51 billion),几乎被越南、印度与墨西哥合计新增的490亿美元(USD 49 billion)抵销;美国自海外进口电子产品总值约1,300亿美元(USD 130 billion),同比仅下降略超1%。

核心制造仍主要在中国完成。Foxconn Technology Group在越南Bac Ninh的Fukang 2025年出口8.6亿美元(USD 8.6 billion),同时自中国、韩国、台湾等地进口7.9亿美元(USD 7.9 billion)零组件,换言之若全部出口,全产品在越南的本地价值增加最高约7.8%。BYD在Phu Tho(河内以外约100公里/62英里)厂区同样是5.1亿美元(USD 5.1 billion)出口、4.9亿美元(USD 4.9 billion)进口的结构,本地附加值约4.5%,且中国占其进口额61%。中低技术最终组装移往越南成为通用模式,上游与核心零组件仍集中于中国、韩国、台湾。

越南Bac Ninh与Quang Chau工业园区的劳动需求正快速放大:农历新年后新增1,000个职缺,Foxconn在旺季曾开出1500万越南盾(约570美元)奖金,吸引大量求职者,当地工时加班普遍,部分员工每周近乎天天加班并因此收入翻倍。越南对美智慧型手机与平板电脑出口超过90%在机场两小时车程内完成,显示其出口网络高度集中;当地手机产量年增39.4%,笔电年增130.3%。美国最高法院推翻多数关税(含芬太尼条款)后,现行普遍关税为10%(7月24日后或升至15%),并对16个和60个经济体分别展开产能过剩与劳工权益调查。若与越南框架条款落实,越南可能面临20%关税,凸显其短期繁荣同时伴随政策风险。

9d5d2ebcdf60.png


22555a3c33d5.png


75cd89eb57b1.png



One year after Donald Trump announced global tariffs on April 2, 2025 under “Liberation Day” to cut the roughly $760 billion U.S.-to-Asia trade deficit, the outcome did not deliver the promised “Make in USA” result. Most Asian laptops and electronics were exempt from direct reciprocal duties, but goods from China still faced fentanyl-related taxes up to 20%, and China’s tariffs reached 125% at the peak of the trade conflict. Bloomberg’s customs-based analysis shows Vietnamese exports of laptops and game consoles to the U.S. surpassed China for the first time. China’s exports to the U.S. fell by $51 billion, nearly offset by a $49 billion rise from Vietnam, India, and Mexico; U.S. electronics imports from overseas totaled about $130 billion, down by just over 1% year-over-year.

Core manufacturing remains mainly in China. Foxconn Technology Group’s Fukang unit in Vietnam exported $8.6 billion in 2025 and imported $7.9 billion in components from China, South Korea, and Taiwan, so value added in Vietnam was at most about 7.8%. BYD’s Phu Tho plant followed the same structure with $5.1 billion in exports and $4.9 billion in imports, local value added around 4.5%, and 61% of its imports from China. Shifting labor-intensive final assembly to Vietnam has become a generic pattern, while upstream manufacturing and core components remain concentrated in China, Korea, and Taiwan.

Vietnam’s Bac Ninh and Quang Chau industrial zones show rapidly rising labor demand: 1,000 vacancies were added since Lunar New Year, Foxconn offered peak hiring bonuses of 15 million dong (about $570), and overtime is common, with some workers doing it almost daily and doubling their income. Over 90% of Vietnamese laptops and tablets shipped to the U.S. are transported within a two-hour drive of the airport, indicating a concentrated export logistics network; smartphone output rose 39.4% and laptops rose 130.3%. After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down most tariffs, including fentanyl duties, the baseline tariff is now 10% and may rise to 15% after July 24, alongside investigations into 16 economies for excess capacity and 60 for labor rights. If the framework with Hanoi is implemented, Vietnam may face a 20% tariff, showing that rapid expansion is paired with policy risk.
2026-04-01 (Wednesday) · 308ee1a697d740961cbd4aaae02941b5441d83ad

Attachments