这次政策转向主要出于经济考量。伊朗冲突可能威胁到全球五分之一，即约20%，的石油供应；美国与以色列开战后，业内预计下周发布的中国数据将显示工业产出与出口在当月放缓。鉴于美国最高法院推翻Donald Trump的惩罚性关税，以及美国在亚洲资源因中东投入而下降，停火亦可平滑他下月赴北京的行程并让其在与Xi Jinping会见前受益于已形成的“政治资本”。
对北京而言，这种参与仍很冒险。巴基斯坦官员称，在斡旋中中国充当“担保人”，向伊朗官员保证其在后续谈判中不遭暗杀，但这种承诺缺乏可执行路径。分析人士认为，中国不太可能向伊朗提供公开安全保证，因为这会与其长期回避军事风险、避免与美国对抗的立场冲突；但中国可以通过经济支持、重建防务能力等方式施压维持关系，并持续向伊朗出口硫酸钠高氯酸盐（sodium perchlorate）这一导弹燃料前体。计划在2026年举行的中国—阿拉伯峰会或使中东国家进一步要求北京承担更大调停角色，尤其是在霍尔木兹海峡与红海未来是否能作为全球公共利益的问题上。
In the hours after Pakistan publicly announced a ceasefire, Iranian officials said that China had made a last-minute push for Tehran to accept it, and the White House later said the arrangement followed top-level U.S.-China talks. As Donald Trump neared his self-imposed deadline to extinguish Iran’s “entire civilization,” this showed that despite a long habit of standing aside, China could still press Iran; Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif publicly thanked China, and Trump’s side acknowledged Beijing’s role.
The shift appears driven by economics. The war risked around one-fifth, about 20%, of global oil supply, and observers expected next week’s Chinese data to show lower industrial output and exports in the month after conflict began. With the U.S. Supreme Court striking down Donald Trump’s punitive tariffs and U.S. military focus in Asia reduced by Middle East commitments, a truce also smooths his upcoming trip to Beijing and builds political capital before his meeting with Xi Jinping.
For Beijing, the involvement is still risky. Pakistani officials said China acted as a guarantor, promising Iranian officials they would not be assassinated during further talks, but that guarantee is hard to enforce. Analysts think China is unlikely to offer explicit security guarantees because that would clash with its longstanding unwillingness to take military risk or face direct U.S. confrontation; it can instead use economic support and defense-recovery aid, including continued exports of sodium perchlorate, a missile-fuel precursor. A planned China-Arab summit in 2026 may push Arab states to ask Beijing for a larger mediation role, especially over whether the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea can remain global public goods.