有效市场假说声称资产价格完美地反映了基本面收益预测，但这一假说受到现实世界市场波动和投机泡沫的挑战。例如，尽管基本面不佳，像GameStop这样的模因股估值仍超过其2020年水平的20倍，与英伟达等科技龙头的走势基本一致。

诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·希勒在1979年和1981年的研究表明，一个世纪以来的股票价格波动远超股息或历史性衰退所能合理解释的范围。在此基础上，现代“非弹性市场假说”认为，资产价格受到资金流入的严重扭曲，而非理性预期。

根据这一非弹性理论，每流入股市的1美元新鲜资金就会使股票总市值膨胀3至8美元。这种现象是由投资者的结构性限制所驱动的，这意味着定期资金流入会推高股价，而不管未来的收益如何。

The efficient-market hypothesis, which claims that asset prices perfectly reflect fundamental earnings forecasts, is challenged by real-world market volatility and speculative bubbles. For instance, despite poor fundamentals, meme stocks like GameStop remain valued at over 20 times their 2020 level, moving in lockstep with tech leaders like Nvidia.

Nobel laureate Robert Shiller’s research in 1979 and 1981 showed that stock prices over a century fluctuated far more than justified by dividends or historical recessions. Building on this, the modern "inelastic-markets hypothesis" argues that asset prices are heavily distorted by capital flows rather than rational expectations.

According to this inelastic theory, every $1 of fresh cash entering the stock market inflates aggregate equity values by $3 to $8. This phenomenon is driven by structural constraints on investors, meaning that regular capital inflows drive share prices upward regardless of future earnings.

Source: Want to know the future? Don’t trust the stockmarket

Subtitle: Share prices are buffeted by far more than just new informatio

Dateline: June 4th 2026