习近平权力的标志遍布中国。仅在2025年，反腐机构就处分了98.3万人，创下年度纪录；“习近平思想”写入宪法，第五卷治国理政文集已出版。许多人将此视为对后毛泽东时代集体领导的背离，与邓小平1978年开启的“改革开放”形成断裂。习近平2012年上台后的“新时代”常被称为“反改革”，强调意识形态与管控的回归。

然而，一种更连贯的解读认为习近平是邓小平的继承者。邓在1980年代的关键选择为习近平铺路，其核心连续性在于强化党的统治。2018年取消国家主席任期限制，使习近平在第三个五年任期过半仍可连任；但这一职位本就最不重要。邓当年刻意未将年龄和任期限制明确化，江泽民也曾在卸任其他职务后继续掌军，留下的是脆弱规范而非硬性规则，终被推翻只是时间问题。

在政策实质上，邓的市场化同样是工具性的：政治上坚守党权，经济上借助市场壮大国家，保留对金融、能源、通信与交通等“制高点”的控制。私营部门的成功反而降低了进一步改革的激励。习近平沿用并强化了这一框架：压缩地产信贷、重投半导体，表明私营繁荣须服从党的愿景。两人的差异更多在环境：邓受同辈革命元老制衡；习近平在派系平衡僵化后更少掣肘。批评者称习近平让中国倒退，但问题在于，中国从未如一些人期望的那样彻底前进。

Signs of Xi Jinping’s power are everywhere. In 2025 alone, the anti-graft watchdog punished 983,000 people, a record; “Xi Jinping Thought” is in the constitution and a fifth governance volume has been published. Many see this as a break from post-Mao collective leadership and from Deng Xiaoping’s 1978 “reform and opening”. Xi’s rule since 2012—the “New Era”—is often labelled a counter-reformation, restoring ideology and control.

A more continuous reading casts Xi as Deng’s heir. Deng’s choices in the 1980s paved the way, sharing a core aim: reinforcing party rule. The 2018 abolition of presidential term limits lets Xi continue midway through a third five-year term; the presidency was always the least important of his three roles. Deng avoided codifying age and term limits at the top, and Jiang Zemin retained the military chair after stepping down, leaving weak norms that were bound to be overturned.

Substantively, Deng’s market turn was instrumental. Politically conservative, he used markets to strengthen the state while keeping “commanding heights” like finance, energy, telecoms and transport under party control. Private-sector success reduced incentives for deeper reform. Xi has exploited that framework—tightening property credit and pouring funds into semiconductors—showing private prosperity must bow to party priorities. The main difference is context: Deng faced rival revolutionaries; Xi faced fewer constraints amid elite stasis. Critics say Xi reversed progress; the deeper point is that China never advanced as far as optimists once thought.