中国政府希望提振内需，但成效有限。1月19日公布的数据显示，2025年GDP增长5%，主要由出口拉动，而居民消费增长仅约4.2%。各省消费差异显著：黑龙江人均可支配收入约3.1万元，其中75%用于消费；西藏收入相近，但仅消费61%。这种差异引发了对哪些地区“敢消费”、哪些地区“谨慎或害怕消费”的讨论，也凸显理解区域差异对刺激消费政策的重要性。
按收入水平看，收入越高，消费占比越低，但存在显著偏离趋势的省份。广东居民消费收入的70%，高出趋势值3个百分点，因体量大，贡献的全国消费额比预期多1740亿元；山东消费偏低，拖累全国消费约3270亿元。更关键的是边际消费：2023—2024年，浙江人均收入增加3200元，其中2900元转化为消费；上海人均收入增加3500元，却仅多消费200元。此前的高消费省广东与低消费省山东在这一指标上接近平均。
影响边际消费倾向的因素包括初始收入水平、城市化程度、失业保险覆盖率和抚养比。高收入和高度城市化地区更倾向于储蓄；失业保险覆盖率高的地区更愿意增加消费；抚养比高则抑制额外支出。由此看，刺激消费应聚焦低收入、农村人口占比高的地区，并通过强化社会保障、减轻育儿与养老负担来配合。即便如此，若2026年GDP目标仍接近5%，当局可能需要更积极的财政刺激。
China’s government wants to boost domestic consumption, but results remain limited. Data released on January 19th show GDP grew by 5% in 2025, driven mainly by exports, while household consumption rose by only about 4.2%. Regional differences are stark: Heilongjiang’s average disposable income is roughly 31,000 yuan, with 75% spent, while Tibetans earn similar amounts but spend just 61%. Such gaps have fuelled debate over which provinces “dare” to consume and highlight why understanding regional patterns matters for policy.
Across provinces, higher income generally correlates with a lower consumption share, yet deviations are notable. Guangdong spends 70% of income, about three percentage points above trend, contributing an extra 174bn yuan to national consumption; Shandong underspends, subtracting about 327bn yuan. Marginal behaviour matters more. From 2023 to 2024, Zhejiang turned 2,900 yuan of a 3,200-yuan income gain into consumption, while Shanghai spent only 200 yuan of a 3,500-yuan gain. Guangdong and Shandong sit near the average on this measure.
Several factors shape marginal spending. Higher initial income and greater urbanisation dampen extra consumption; broader unemployment insurance coverage raises it; high dependency ratios reduce it. The analysis points to focusing stimulus on lower-income, more rural provinces, alongside strengthening safety nets and easing child- and elder-care costs. Even then, if the 2026 GDP target again nears 5%, authorities may face pressure to deploy bolder fiscal stimulus.