习近平在去年回顾地缘政治形势时本有理由乐观，但特朗普的新一轮冒险令局势骤然紧张。美国抓捕委内瑞拉的马杜罗，使中国在南美失去最重要伙伴和最大武器买家，影响约占中国原油进口4%的供应，并可能迫使中国核销约100亿美元贷款；同时威胁到港口、卫星地面站和数十亿美元贸易。在中东，美国主导的制裁与军事威胁动摇了伊朗政权，该国去年向中国提供了12%的原油进口。中国因此意识到，安抚特朗普并不能确保其克制。

习近平面临抉择：是更强硬反制美国的胁迫以保护海外利益，还是为达成交易而暂时忍受损失，换取更紧迫的目标——经济稳定与台湾问题的进展。两位领导人今年可能至少会晤三次，包括4月在北京的峰会。中国难以在拉美或中东实施军事干预，其对这些地区的武器出口仅占全球销售的一小部分；扩大规模需要时间与资金，且委内瑞拉使用中制防空雷达的失败已成警示。

尽管如此，中国仍有工具牵制美国。在委内瑞拉，中国合资企业占该国石油产量逾10%，且是近年最大买家；通信网络依赖华为和中兴，社会控制系统亦由中企建设。在伊朗，中国此前已协助扩展无人机与人脸识别监控，并强化网络管控。公开阻挠美国的风险正在上升，尤其是在特朗普战术更为灵活之下。贸易谈判与台湾问题的前景，或取决于中国在更广泛全球计划上的反应；例如特朗普近期威胁对与伊朗贸易的国家征收25%关税。若美国意在主导西半球却否认中国在亚洲的主导地位，克制可能代价高昂。

Xi Jinping had reasons to be cheerful last year, but Donald Trump’s renewed adventurism has made the landscape more unsettled. America’s capture of Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro stripped China of its closest South American partner and biggest regional arms buyer, affecting roughly 4% of China’s crude imports and risking about $10bn in loans; it also threatens ports, satellite ground stations and billions in trade. In the Middle East, U.S.-led sanctions and military pressure have shaken Iran, which supplied 12% of China’s oil imports last year. Beijing now sees that appeasing Trump does not ensure moderation.

Xi faces a dilemma: push back harder to defend far-flung interests, or absorb losses to cut a deal serving nearer priorities—economic stability and possible progress on Taiwan. The two leaders may meet at least three times this year, including an April summit in Beijing. China lacks capacity for armed interventions in Latin America or the Middle East, and its arms exports there are a small share of global sales; scaling up would take time and money, and Venezuela’s poor experience with Chinese air-defence systems is a warning.

China still has leverage. In Venezuela, a Chinese joint venture accounts for over 10% of oil output and China has been the biggest buyer; telecoms rely on Huawei and ZTE, and Chinese systems underpin social control. In Iran, China has helped expand drone and facial-recognition surveillance and internet controls. Yet overt obstruction now looks riskier as Trump’s tactics evolve. Trade talks and Taiwan progress may hinge on how China responds to broader U.S. plans, including a threatened 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran. If America seeks dominance in the western hemisphere while denying China primacy in Asia, restraint could prove costly.