马来西亚本月推出面向年轻创业者的新补助，但对象并非科技行业，而是农业；印尼、菲律宾和泰国也有类似计划。多年推动劳动力从农业转向工业后，问题变成农民老龄化。马来西亚农民平均年龄为60岁，菲律宾为56岁；整个东南亚约三分之一的农场劳动力在55岁及以上，而十年前不足五分之一。这既反映了城市就业吸引力增强，也体现了农村医疗改善带来的寿命延长。

老龄化正在威胁一个仍然关键的部门。农业在各国占GDP的9%至22%，并雇佣约30%的地区劳动力。随着年龄增长，生产率往往下降，不仅因为体力受限，也因为较少采用新种子或机械。2024年一项关于中国农民的研究发现，老龄化与较低生产率相关，主要源于技术采用率下降。虽然区域并不缺粮，但在贸易战加剧的背景下，粮食安全风险必须严肃对待。

对策之一是让年长农民更高效地工作，包括信贷支持、机械租赁和培训。但吸引年轻人回流并不现实。城市工作不仅收入更高，社会地位也更高；2020年对菲律宾稻农的调查显示，约三分之二不希望子女从农。提高吸引力需要扩大农场规模以实现机械化和更高收入。日本通过土地整合部分缓解了老龄化问题，但东南亚土地更碎片化、养老金不足，使改革更难。如何应对农民老龄化，将预示该地区应对更广泛人口老化的能力。

Malaysia launched new grants this month for young entrepreneurs in agriculture, not tech, joining similar schemes in Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand. After years of shifting labour from farms to factories, the problem is ageing farmers. The average farmer is 60 in Malaysia and 56 in the Philippines; across South-East Asia about one-third of farm workers are 55 or older, up from under one-fifth a decade ago. This reflects urban job pull and longer rural life spans.

Ageing threatens a still-critical sector. Agriculture contributes roughly 9–22% of GDP by country and employs about 30% of the region’s workers. As farmers age, productivity tends to fall, not only due to physical limits but also lower adoption of new seeds and machinery. A 2024 study of Chinese farmers linked ageing to lower productivity through reduced technology uptake. The region is not short of food, but with escalating trade wars, food-security risks warrant attention.

One response is equipping older farmers to stay productive via credit access, machine rentals and training. Drawing youths back is unrealistic. City jobs pay more and confer status; a 2020 survey of Filipino paddy farmers found about two-thirds did not want their children to farm. Making agriculture attractive requires larger farms to justify mechanisation and raise incomes. Japan eased ageing partly through land consolidation, but South-East Asia’s fragmented holdings and weak pensions complicate reform. Managing ageing farmers will signal how well the region can handle broader demographic greying.