Kelly Grieco所引述的开源资料分析显示，伊朗在3月10日之后的攻击有效穿透率明显提高，最高可达四分之一导弹入境。Bloomberg Economics防务主管Becca Wasser指出，最近三天针对海湾地区目标的弹道导弹日均约21发，显示在反复轰炸下仍维持稳定节奏。Nicole Grajewski形容作战模式转为较少但更精准、针对性更高的轮次，聚焦选定且多为固定目标，以产生更实质的命中与成本；这是从先前靠“饱和”打法转向精准施压。穿透率上升的原因可能包括拦截弹不足、雷达受损、轨道与进攻方向更替，以及攻击目标选择变化。
技术面也在改变战果：Khorramshahr弹药可挂载高达1,500公斤的单体弹头，并常与集束弹药搭配使用，高空散布可提高拦截难度；其约2,500公里射程使其可由东部发射，避开多数美以反复打击过的西部新型固体燃料系统。伊朗亦加大对重要基础设施施压，对能源与油气目标的攻击上升，并已打击巴林美国第五舰队总部、至少3套高价值雷达系统与沙乌地阿拉伯5架空中加油机。新一代如Fattah-1与Kheybar Shekan采用固体推进与机动弹头，末段加速火箭可提高末端速度、缩短反应时间。虽仍未达中俄同类大规模常规弹道导弹的技术成熟度，但仍足以在区域内造成实质破坏。
After more than three weeks of uninterrupted U.S.-led and Israeli airstrikes, Iran’s air-and-launcher capacity appears heavily degraded, yet Tehran is still conducting attacks from harder-to-reach eastern bases. U.S. and Israeli officials estimate that about two-thirds of launchers have been destroyed, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says Iran’s offensive capability has fallen by 90%. Since the war began on Feb. 28, Tehran has already fired more than 1,200 ballistic missiles and at least 3,300 Shahed cruise missiles. Weekend strikes on Israel injured over 100 people, hit Dimona, and were assessed as likely using Khorramshahr missiles, which are noted for longer range and heavier payloads, according to Decker Eveleth.
Open-source analysis cited by Kelly Grieco shows Iran’s attacks after about March 10 have become more likely to get through, with up to one quarter apparently penetrating defenses. Bloomberg Economics defense lead Becca Wasser said attacks on Gulf targets have stabilized at about 21 ballistic missiles per day over the last three days, showing sustained output despite repeated strikes. Nicole Grajewski described an operational shift toward smaller but better-aimed salvoes aimed at selected, often fixed targets, generating meaningful hit rates. This trend moves away from earlier saturation attacks intended to overwhelm air defenses. The higher leakage rate could reflect interceptor shortages, damaged radars, altered trajectories and approaches, and shifting target selection.
Technical changes also affect effectiveness. Khorramshahr missiles are often paired with cluster munitions, lowering single-explosion power but increasing interception difficulty, and can carry up to a 1,500-kilogram unitary warhead. Their roughly 2,500-kilometer range allows launch from eastern Iran, reducing vulnerability to U.S.-Israeli strikes that have repeatedly hit western bases for newer solid-fueled systems. Iran has also increased pressure on energy and oil infrastructure, and has struck the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, at least three expensive radar systems, and five aerial tankers in Saudi Arabia. Advanced types such as Kheybar Shekan and Fattah-1 use solid propellant, with maneuvering warheads and terminal boosters that increase terminal speed and reduce warning time; while still below Chinese and Russian arsenals, they remain capable of threatening house-sized targets on atmospheric trajectories between high- and low-altitude defenses.