世界气象组织（WMO）针对今年的超级圣婴现象发出了史上最明确的警告，预测其有接近 100% 的机率将持续至二月。这场圣婴现象预计将大幅打破历史纪录，并使全球海面温度与极端天气风险显著升高，联合国秘书长古特瑞斯亦直言地球正步入前所未有的危险区域。

除了扰乱区域天气格局，圣婴现象向大气释放热量通常会推升全球均温，加上人为气候变迁的叠加效应，今年极可能成为有纪录以来最热的一年，后续效应更可能让未来几年升温突破 1.5 度的防线。气候专家指出，此次现象规模庞大且充满不可预测性，其带来的冲击将极其深远且难以完全估量。

尽管圣婴现象尚未达到巅峰，但全球各地已显现灾情，包括美国刚历经史上最热的夏季、苏丹尼罗河水位骤降加剧粮荒、波多黎各实施分区供水，以及东太平洋渔业因海水异常增温受到重创。古特瑞斯强调，目前正是风险攀升与气候行动之间的赛跑，国际社会必须加快行动因应危机。

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued an unprecedented and definitive warning regarding this year's super El Niño, forecasting a nearly 100% likelihood that it will persist through February. This event is on track to become the strongest on record by a wide margin, driving up sea surface temperatures and intensifying global risks of extreme weather, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres warning that the planet has entered uncharted danger zones.

Beyond disrupting regional weather patterns, the immense heat released by El Niño is compounding human-induced global warming, making this year likely the hottest on record and potentially pushing future temperatures past the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold. Climate scientists emphasize that the unprecedented scale of this phenomenon carries massive and unpredictable consequences that humanity has rarely witnessed before.

Although the phenomenon has not yet peaked, severe impacts are already unfolding worldwide, including the hottest summer on record in the United States, worsening famine from dropping Nile water levels in Sudan, emergency water rationing in Puerto Rico, and widespread disruption of eastern Pacific fisheries. Guterres stressed that the world is in an urgent race between escalating climate risks and protective action, one that humanity must win.