在2025年，中国货物出口达到26.99兆元人民币，进口为18.48兆元人民币，形成创纪录的8.51兆元人民币（约合1.19兆美元）贸易顺差。机电产品在出口中占据16.47兆元人民币，进口为7.41兆元人民币，产生超过9兆元人民币的净差额。尽管集成电路出口增长超过25%达到约2019亿美元，但集成电路进口高达4243亿美元，导致逾2200亿美元的贸易逆差。此外，全球大宗商品价格周期性下跌——包括布伦特原油价格下跌30%、铁矿石指数下跌6.3%以及纽卡斯尔动力煤均价下跌约22%——大幅降低了原材料进口成本，成为顺差扩大的关键因素。

庞大的贸易顺差未能直接转化为家庭福祉或广泛的企业利润，微观经济层面呈现出严峻的脱节。在北京一家代理数百家中小企业的财务公司中，超过50%的客户面临实际营业亏损。同时，即使是拥有高学历的科技业从业人员，也面临失业、数百万元人民币房贷以及消费紧缩的困境。正如Michael Pettis所分析，这种失衡源于国民收入分配中居民部门份额偏低；由于生产能力扩张速度远超国内家庭收入和消费安全感，超额的工业产出必须依赖海外需求承接。

美国财政部长Scott Bessent主张借由关税施加外部压力来迫使中国扩大内需，但这种政策路径并未直接解决结构性分配问题。关税压力主要由个别工厂利润、供应商以及劳工工资承担，可能诱发成本压缩而非工资增长。面对对美贸易限制，出口已转向欧洲、东盟及拉丁美洲市场。实质的经济再平衡需要提升家庭资产负债表、健全社会保障并提高劳动收入占比，进而使强大的工业产能得以由国内购买力消化，而非仅依赖边境贸易壁垒。

In 2025, China recorded a historic trade surplus of 8.51 trillion RMB (approximately 1.19 trillion USD), with goods exports reaching 26.99 trillion RMB and imports totaling 18.48 trillion RMB. Mechanical and electrical products drove this surplus, generating exports of 16.47 trillion RMB against imports of 7.41 trillion RMB, yielding an excess exceeding 9 trillion RMB. Although integrated circuit exports grew by more than 25% to 201.9 billion USD, semiconductor imports reached 424.3 billion USD, generating a deficit exceeding 220 billion USD. Concurrently, cyclical price drops in global commodities—including a 30% drop in Brent crude, a 6.3% decline in iron ore, and an approximate 22% decrease in Newcastle thermal coal—significantly reduced total import expenditures.

This external expansion contrasts sharply with domestic microeconomic conditions. A Beijing accounting firm managing hundreds of small and medium-sized enterprises reported that over 50% experienced genuine operational losses. Concurrently, highly qualified professionals face sudden unemployment, multi-million RMB mortgage liabilities, and sharp consumption curtailment. As Michael Pettis observes, trade surpluses emerge from domestic savings exceeding investment, reflecting an underlying national income distribution where the household share remains insufficient. Consequently, rapid industrial expansion has outpaced domestic consumer purchasing capacity, necessitating external absorption.

The external tariff remedy advocated by Scott Bessent fails to rectify internal structural distortions. Tariffs fall directly on supplier margins and worker wages, frequently prompting further operational cost compression rather than wage growth. Instead of contracting, Chinese exports have adapted by pivoting heavily toward European, ASEAN, and Latin American destinations. Genuine economic rebalancing requires fortifying domestic household balance sheets, expanding social security protections, and elevating labor income shares, thereby allowing China's substantial manufacturing output to be absorbed by domestic purchasing power rather than curtailed by border duties.