厄爾尼諾對全球供應鏈和航運的衝擊正在加劇。巴拿馬運河因降雨量低於歷史均值而實施吃水限制，加上中東霍爾木茲海峽和紅海航線受戰爭威脅，全球海運基準費率已突破每個40呎貨櫃4600美元的兩年新高。巴西小麥產量預計下降23%，農民因擔憂收穫期暴雨而減少種植；印度限制糖出口以保障國內供應，引發對稻米出口進一步受限的擔憂。澳洲農業保險申請量飆升至正常水平的四倍，對沖基金摩頓資本合夥公司更推出5億美元計劃押注糧食通脹。
專家預測這次厄爾尼諾將於2026年底達到強度峰值，太平洋海溫可能比正常值高出2.6°C，成為1950年有現代紀錄以來最強的一次。其經濟損失預計到2030年將超過4萬億美元，遠超2016年和1998年的超強事件。哥倫比亞因水力發電佔全國電力三分之二，乾旱條件已迫使該國更多依賴化石燃料發電。摩根大通全球氣候諮詢主管卡普尼克指出，氣候變化使季節性預測面臨前所未有的不確定性，企業和政府難以精確判斷最嚴重的暴風雨和乾旱將在何處降臨。
A potentially record-breaking Super El Niño, forming since June 2026, is rapidly intensifying across the Pacific and poses severe risks to economies already destabilized by the war in Iran. The event threatens crops, fisheries, and food security across the Global South, with Peru's anchovy industry shut down, India's monsoon rainfall running 12% below normal, and consumer prices surging in the Philippines and Indonesia. Bloomberg Economics research estimates that drought from a typical El Niño can push consumer price indices up by nearly two percentage points in both Southeast Asian nations. Food, which comprises 35–40% of household spending in these countries, is where most consumers will feel the impact first.
Global supply chains face compounding disruptions as El Niño-induced drought threatens the Panama Canal alongside war-related blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea. Benchmark shipping rates have hit a two-year high above $4,600 per 40-foot container. In agriculture, Brazil's wheat production is forecast to fall 23%, India has restricted sugar exports, and Australian farmers are bracing for failed spring rains critical to grain harvests. Insurance requests in Australia have surged to four times normal levels, while hedge fund Moreton Capital Partners has launched a $500 million initiative betting on dramatic food inflation from vulnerable global crops including wheat and palm oil.
Scientists project this El Niño will peak in late 2026 with ocean temperatures up to 2.6°C above normal, potentially making it the strongest since modern records began in 1950. Cumulative economic losses are estimated to exceed $4 trillion through 2030, amplified by a larger global economy and greater event intensity compared to the 1998 and 2016 episodes. Colombia's hydropower-dependent grid is already shifting toward fossil fuels, and energy transitions are complicated by over $500 million in unpaid utility debts. JPMorgan's climate advisory head Sarah Kapnick warns that climate change introduces unprecedented uncertainty into seasonal forecasting, making it a major research challenge to predict where the worst impacts will strike in a world without historical analogs.