根据热带风暴风险组织的最新预测,由于圣婴现象加剧,目前西北太平洋的台风季将成为有纪录以来最强烈的台风季之一。预计今年将有二十个台风形成,数量比历史平均高出百分之六十,显示出这是一个异常活跃的季节。(关键数字:60)
在这二十个预测将形成的台风中,预计有十三个将是强烈台风。这些风暴可能会对包括中国、日本、菲律宾和越南等国家造成影响。目前该地区的风暴活动已经相当频繁,截至八月一日,本季已经记录了三个五级台风。(关键数字:5, 1)
此外,超过六十年来最弱的信风表明大气状态与创纪录的太平洋高温强烈同步。这种强烈的海空耦合效应有助于创造极端活跃的台风季条件。相比之下,由于圣婴现象的影响,大西洋流域的飓风季预计将比平常平静。
According to the latest projection by Tropical Storm Risk, the current typhoon season in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is shaping up to be one of the most intense on record due to a strengthening El Niño system. Twenty typhoons are forecast to form this year, which is 60% above the historical average, indicating an exceptionally active season.
Out of the twenty typhoons forecast to form, thirteen are expected to be intense. These storms have the potential to hit countries including China, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The region is already experiencing heightened storm activity, with three Category 5 typhoons recorded this season as of August 1.
Furthermore, the weakest trade winds in over six decades indicate that the atmosphere is strongly synchronized with record-high Pacific Ocean temperatures. This strong ocean-sky coupling helps create conditions for an extremely active typhoon season. In contrast, the Atlantic basin is expected to have a quieter-than-usual hurricane season due to the effects of El Niño.