根據熱帶風暴風險組織的最新預測,由於聖嬰現象加劇,目前西北太平洋的颱風季將成為有紀錄以來最強烈的颱風季之一。預計今年將有二十個颱風形成,數量比歷史平均高出百分之六十,顯示出這是一個異常活躍的季節。(關鍵數字:60)
在這二十個預測將形成的颱風中,預計有十三個將是強烈颱風。這些風暴可能會對包括中國、日本、菲律賓和越南等國家造成影響。目前該地區的風暴活動已經相當頻繁,截至八月一日,本季已經記錄了三個五級颱風。(關鍵數字:5, 1)
此外,超過六十年來最弱的信風表明大氣狀態與創紀錄的太平洋高溫強烈同步。這種強烈的海空耦合效應有助於創造極端活躍的颱風季條件。相比之下,由於聖嬰現象的影響,大西洋流域的颶風季預計將比平常平靜。
According to the latest projection by Tropical Storm Risk, the current typhoon season in the Northwest Pacific Ocean is shaping up to be one of the most intense on record due to a strengthening El Niño system. Twenty typhoons are forecast to form this year, which is 60% above the historical average, indicating an exceptionally active season.
Out of the twenty typhoons forecast to form, thirteen are expected to be intense. These storms have the potential to hit countries including China, Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The region is already experiencing heightened storm activity, with three Category 5 typhoons recorded this season as of August 1.
Furthermore, the weakest trade winds in over six decades indicate that the atmosphere is strongly synchronized with record-high Pacific Ocean temperatures. This strong ocean-sky coupling helps create conditions for an extremely active typhoon season. In contrast, the Atlantic basin is expected to have a quieter-than-usual hurricane season due to the effects of El Niño.