然而，历史经验表明日本擅长长期规划以摆脱供应依赖。1973年大豆危机后，日本积极鼓励巴西发展大豆生产，尽管美国农业部曾在1986年判断这些努力收效甚微，但事实证明巴西的大豆产量此后增长了十倍，并超越美国成为全球最大生产国。在稀土领域，日本同样在2010年与北京的外交争端后开始布局替代供应链，通过国家矿产安全机构JOGMEC扶持澳洲的Lynas稀土公司，使非中国稀土产量从零增长到全球总量的近三分之一。
目前，日本正在多线推进稀土供应多元化。JOGMEC资助了一项法国与马来西亚的合资项目，可望供应全球20%的重稀土；住友商事是美国最大稀土矿商MP Materials的主要客户；比利时索尔维公司也在法国建设加工巴西矿石的重稀土工厂。文章指出，中国认为自己在关键矿产上地位不可撼动的想法正在出现裂痕，大宗商品生产者最古老的教训是：客户几乎总有替代选择，不可靠的供应商终将被取代。
Japan faces a dual commodity crisis: a petroleum shock from the Persian Gulf and a critical minerals squeeze on rare earths and tungsten traditionally sourced from China. A diplomatic row has reduced Chinese exports of tungsten, yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium to Japan to near zero, crippling production of high-strength magnets, cutting tools, and weapons. The situation echoes the 1973 "soy shock," when President Nixon's soybean export ban disrupted Japan's supply chain for tofu, miso, and soy sauce, forcing the country to rethink its dependence on a single supplier.
History suggests Japan excels at long-term strategic planning to overcome supply vulnerabilities. After the 1973 soybean crisis, Japan invested in Brazilian soybean development—efforts that were initially dismissed as ineffective but ultimately led to a tenfold increase in production, with Brazil overtaking the US as the world's top producer. Similarly, following a 2010 rare-earths dispute with China, Japan's JOGMEC agency backed Australia's Lynas Rare Earths, helping non-Chinese rare-earth output grow from essentially zero to nearly a third of global supply within fifteen years.
Japan is now pursuing multiple avenues to diversify its rare-earth sources. JOGMEC is funding a French-Malaysian joint venture that could supply 20% of the world's heavy rare earths; Sumitomo Corp. is a major customer of US-based MP Materials; and Belgium's Solvay is building a heavy rare-earth plant in France to process Brazilian ore. The article argues that China's belief in its unassailable mineral dominance is cracking, as companies across Europe and the US scale up capacity using legacy expertise, and Japan and the US hold the most important rare-earth technology patents. The enduring lesson for commodity producers is clear: customers always have alternatives, and unreliable suppliers will inevitably be replaced.