主要AI支出企業正越來越多地透過發行長期債券來為龐大的資本支出計畫融資。Alphabet持有270億美元2056年或之後到期的債券，Amazon約有320億美元，Meta約210億美元。這四大科技巨頭預計2026年合計在AI運算基礎設施上投入7400億美元，2027年再投入1兆美元。Alphabet在第二季度首次出現負自由現金流，Amazon今年預計將出現235億美元的負自由現金流。Amazon截至六月底的總債務已從2024年底的1.478億美元激增至2420億美元，Alphabet的債務也從257億美元攀升至1187億美元。
儘管債務攀升和利率風險令人擔憂，但強勁的企業獲利為市場提供了支撐。標普500成分股第二季度利潤預計同比增長32%，遠超季初23%的預期，其中資訊科技板塊利潤增長高達71%。部分公司也透過增發股票籌資，如Intel籌集了200億美元，Alphabet在六月籌集了850億美元。分析師認為，只要經濟和企業盈利保持強勁，市場就能承受較高的利率環境，但若利率快速飆升或十年期國債殖利率觸及5%，將構成嚴峻挑戰。
Big Tech's massive artificial intelligence investments are propelling the stock market to record highs, yet rising interest rates pose the most significant threat to this rally. Technology stocks are particularly sensitive to Treasury yields because their valuations depend heavily on future growth expectations, and higher rates diminish the present value of anticipated profits. While recent subdued inflation readings eased fears of an imminent Fed rate hike and helped push the S&P 500 to a new all-time high, inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, traders expect at least one more hike by year-end, and the 30-year Treasury yield is near its highest level since 2007.
The major AI spenders are increasingly turning to debt markets to finance their ambitious capital expenditure plans. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are projected to spend a combined $740 billion on AI computing infrastructure in 2026 and another $1 trillion in 2027. This spending is so extreme that Alphabet reported negative free cash flow for the first time as a public company in the second quarter, while Amazon is projected to have negative free cash flow of $23.5 billion this year and $36.2 billion next year. Amazon's total debt surged to $242 billion by June 30 from $147.8 million at the end of 2024, and Alphabet's debt climbed from $25.7 billion to $118.7 billion over the same period.
Despite concerns over mounting debt and rate risk, robust corporate earnings provide a crucial counterbalance. S&P 500 second-quarter profits are on pace to grow 32% year-over-year, far exceeding initial expectations of 23%, with the information technology sector reporting 71% profit growth. Some companies are also raising equity capital, with Intel securing $20 billion and Alphabet raising $85 billion through share offerings. Market strategists believe that as long as earnings and the economy remain strong, stocks can withstand a higher rate environment, though a rapid surge in rates or the 10-year yield reaching 5% would present a serious challenge to the current bull market driven by AI enthusiasm.