主要AI支出企业正越来越多地透过发行长期债券来为庞大的资本支出计划融资。Alphabet持有270亿美元2056年或之后到期的债券，Amazon约有320亿美元，Meta约210亿美元。这四大科技巨头预计2026年合计在AI运算基础设施上投入7400亿美元，2027年再投入1兆美元。Alphabet在第二季度首次出现负自由现金流，Amazon今年预计将出现235亿美元的负自由现金流。Amazon截至六月底的总债务已从2024年底的1.478亿美元激增至2420亿美元，Alphabet的债务也从257亿美元攀升至1187亿美元。
尽管债务攀升和利率风险令人担忧，但强劲的企业获利为市场提供了支撑。标普500成分股第二季度利润预计同比增长32%，远超季初23%的预期，其中资讯科技板块利润增长高达71%。部分公司也透过增发股票筹资，如Intel筹集了200亿美元，Alphabet在六月筹集了850亿美元。分析师认为，只要经济和企业盈利保持强劲，市场就能承受较高的利率环境，但若利率快速飙升或十年期国债殖利率触及5%，将构成严峻挑战。
Big Tech's massive artificial intelligence investments are propelling the stock market to record highs, yet rising interest rates pose the most significant threat to this rally. Technology stocks are particularly sensitive to Treasury yields because their valuations depend heavily on future growth expectations, and higher rates diminish the present value of anticipated profits. While recent subdued inflation readings eased fears of an imminent Fed rate hike and helped push the S&P 500 to a new all-time high, inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, traders expect at least one more hike by year-end, and the 30-year Treasury yield is near its highest level since 2007.
The major AI spenders are increasingly turning to debt markets to finance their ambitious capital expenditure plans. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft are projected to spend a combined $740 billion on AI computing infrastructure in 2026 and another $1 trillion in 2027. This spending is so extreme that Alphabet reported negative free cash flow for the first time as a public company in the second quarter, while Amazon is projected to have negative free cash flow of $23.5 billion this year and $36.2 billion next year. Amazon's total debt surged to $242 billion by June 30 from $147.8 million at the end of 2024, and Alphabet's debt climbed from $25.7 billion to $118.7 billion over the same period.
Despite concerns over mounting debt and rate risk, robust corporate earnings provide a crucial counterbalance. S&P 500 second-quarter profits are on pace to grow 32% year-over-year, far exceeding initial expectations of 23%, with the information technology sector reporting 71% profit growth. Some companies are also raising equity capital, with Intel securing $20 billion and Alphabet raising $85 billion through share offerings. Market strategists believe that as long as earnings and the economy remain strong, stocks can withstand a higher rate environment, though a rapid surge in rates or the 10-year yield reaching 5% would present a serious challenge to the current bull market driven by AI enthusiasm.