在疫情期间涌入佛罗里达州的人潮推高了当地房价与地方财政收入，截至今年1月的三年间，全州房产税征收额飙升了近40%。为此，即将离任的共和党州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯推动了激进的第3号宪法修正案，拟在11月公投中决定是否逐步取消主要住宅的几乎所有房产税。该方案计划到2028年将自住主要住宅的房产税免税额度从5万美元大幅提升至25万美元，这意味着估值40万美元的房产仅需按15万美元计税，企图借此遏制地方政府开支并减轻居民生活成本。

然而，州政府经济学家的测算揭示了严峻的财政冲击：全州城市、县及特别管区起初每年将损失50亿美元收入，五年内年损失额将扩大至近120亿美元，相当于整体财政收入平均锐减35%。仅迈阿密-戴德县就将承受14亿美元的资金缺口；在加兹登县等缺乏工商业基础的农村县，全县1万套住宅中有8000套将彻底退出税收名录。由于公立学校专属税费得以保留，基本削减将直接冲击警察、消防、飓风防灾、饮用水安全及蚊媒疾病监测等核心公共服务。

如此严峻的前景引发了罕见的反对联盟，民主党人与佛罗里达税务观察等传统财政保守机构罕见联手，警界高层更是公开抨击该举措实质上等同于“撤资警队”，并担忧地方政府将通过乱收费把税负转嫁给低收入群体。除房地产经纪行业外，共和党内部也对其高度分化；尽管该法案需获得60%选民支持方能通过且民调显示其支持率正处于临界点，但考虑到加州曾因类似减税举措导致地方财政瘫痪以及佛州预计在2030年陷入赤字，部分共和党人甚至暗中希望选民否决这一政治豪赌。

Driven by an influx of pandemic-era transplants that inflated property values, Florida's statewide property-tax revenues surged by nearly 40% in the three years leading up to January. In response, outgoing Republican Governor Ron DeSantis championed Amendment 3, an ambitious ballot measure for the November election aimed at ultimately abolishing property taxes on primary residences. Under the proposed constitutional amendment, the homestead property-tax exemption would quintuple from $50,000 to $250,000 by 2028, ensuring that a primary residence assessed at $400,000 would be taxed on an assessed valuation of just $150,000 to rein in municipal budgets.

State fiscal projections indicate catastrophic consequences for municipal balances, with local cities, counties, and special districts facing an initial revenue loss of $5bn annually that climbs to roughly $12bn within five years—representing an average 35% decline across municipal budgets. Miami-Dade County alone faces a $1.4bn budget contraction, while rural bedroom jurisdictions such as Gadsden County would see 8,000 of their 10,000 residential homes removed from tax rolls entirely. Although school funding levies were carved out of the cuts, basic civic operations including policing, fire rescue, election management, hurricane preparation, and mosquito disease surveillance risk insolvency.

These alarming fiscal dynamics have united Democrats and staunch fiscal conservatives like Florida TaxWatch in fierce opposition, fearing municipalities will substitute arbitrary regressive fees that disadvantage poorer residents, while conservative law enforcement leaders have branded the measure a Republican effort to defund the police. With only the Florida Realtors trade group actively campaigning in favor, GOP strategists are cautioning legislative candidates against full endorsement. As the constitutional threshold requires a 60% supermajority and Florida projects state deficits by 2030 akin to California's Proposition 13 crisis, many leaders privately hope voters reject the measure.

Source: Florida has put America’s boldest tax cut on the ballot

Subtitle: It may be too tempting for voters to resist, but passing it will come back to bite them

Dateline: Oct 1st 2026\n