美国对伊朗发动的战争反而让原本正镇压国内抗议的伊朗政权获得了喘息的机会与延续生命的借口。尽管美国与以色列在冲突初期重创了伊朗的军事与经济设施,但德黑兰的高层却发现,维持甚至扩大战争状态对他们而言比恢复和平更有利,因为和平将迫使他们面对国内的经济崩溃与民众的不满。
伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队(IRGC)将这场战争视为生死存亡的关键,并利用战争状态作为掩护,进一步加剧对国内的镇压。政府通过了新的法律,将过去的许多罪行升级为可判处死刑的叛国或间谍罪,导致政治犯的处决比例大幅上升,同时进一步限制新闻自由与对外联系,将国家推向一个巨大的监狱。
尽管美国希望透过经济制裁重回战前的施压策略,但伊朗政权并未妥协,反而利用停火期间重组军队并补充武器库存,准备迎接长期冲突。伊朗高层认为他们正在这场对抗中取得前所未有的优势,只要他们还能威胁霍尔木兹海峡的航运与海湾地区的基础设施,他们就拥有阻止和平实现的否决权。
The war launched by the United States against Iran has paradoxically given the Iranian regime, which was busy suppressing domestic protests, a chance to breathe and an excuse to prolong its rule. Although the US and Israel severely damaged Iran's military and economic facilities in the early stages of the conflict, Tehran's leaders realized that maintaining or even expanding the state of war is more advantageous to them than restoring peace, as peace would force them to face domestic economic collapse and public dissatisfaction.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) views this war as an existential matter and uses the state of war as a cover to further intensify domestic repression. The government has passed new legislation escalating many past crimes into capital offenses of treason or espionage, leading to a significant rise in the execution rate of political prisoners, while further restricting press freedom and foreign communication, pushing the country toward becoming a massive prison.
Although the US hopes to return to its pre-war strategy of pressure through economic sanctions, the Iranian regime has not compromised, instead using the ceasefire period to restructure its military and replenish its weapons stockpiles in preparation for a long-term conflict. Iranian leaders believe they are gaining an unprecedented advantage in this confrontation, and as long as they can threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure in the Gulf region, they hold veto power over the realization of peace.