← 返回 Avalaches

美國對伊朗發動的戰爭反而讓原本正鎮壓國內抗議的伊朗政權獲得了喘息的機會與延續生命的藉口。儘管美國與以色列在衝突初期重創了伊朗的軍事與經濟設施,但德黑蘭的高層卻發現,維持甚至擴大戰爭狀態對他們而言比恢復和平更有利,因為和平將迫使他們面對國內的經濟崩潰與民眾的不滿。

伊朗伊斯蘭革命衛隊(IRGC)將這場戰爭視為生死存亡的關鍵,並利用戰爭狀態作為掩護,進一步加劇對國內的鎮壓。政府通過了新的法律,將過去的許多罪行升級為可判處死刑的叛國或間諜罪,導致政治犯的處決比例大幅上升,同時進一步限制新聞自由與對外聯繫,將國家推向一個巨大的監獄。

儘管美國希望透過經濟制裁重回戰前的施壓策略,但伊朗政權並未妥協,反而利用停火期間重組軍隊並補充武器庫存,準備迎接長期衝突。伊朗高層認為他們正在這場對抗中取得前所未有的優勢,只要他們還能威脅霍爾木茲海峽的航運與海灣地區的基礎設施,他們就擁有阻止和平實現的否決權。

The war launched by the United States against Iran has paradoxically given the Iranian regime, which was busy suppressing domestic protests, a chance to breathe and an excuse to prolong its rule. Although the US and Israel severely damaged Iran's military and economic facilities in the early stages of the conflict, Tehran's leaders realized that maintaining or even expanding the state of war is more advantageous to them than restoring peace, as peace would force them to face domestic economic collapse and public dissatisfaction.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) views this war as an existential matter and uses the state of war as a cover to further intensify domestic repression. The government has passed new legislation escalating many past crimes into capital offenses of treason or espionage, leading to a significant rise in the execution rate of political prisoners, while further restricting press freedom and foreign communication, pushing the country toward becoming a massive prison.

Although the US hopes to return to its pre-war strategy of pressure through economic sanctions, the Iranian regime has not compromised, instead using the ceasefire period to restructure its military and replenish its weapons stockpiles in preparation for a long-term conflict. Iranian leaders believe they are gaining an unprecedented advantage in this confrontation, and as long as they can threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and infrastructure in the Gulf region, they hold veto power over the realization of peace.

2026-08-19 (Wednesday) · dacf6d6fd3ecc51d0dfdd5685ee903f90e5db09b