随著伊朗战争进入第七个月，总统 Donald Trump 已从军事行动转向实施由财政部长 Scott Bessent 领导的「经济弃儿行动」，以完全孤立德黑兰。然而，在经历了 2018 年和去年启动的两轮「极限施压」制裁后，伊朗的经济已经受到严重限制。在 2015 年核协议破裂后，伊朗扩大了与五个金砖国家和上海合作组织的贸易，以绕过全球金融体系，尽管这产生的经济体量远低于完全的全球整合。
华盛顿的主要目标是阻止中国购买伊朗石油，尽管北京表现出零遵守的兴趣。在区域方面，伊朗的天然气继续供应土耳其，以在冬季为其东部省份供暖，迫使总统 Recep Tayyip Erdoğan 在满足国内能源需求与维持与 Donald Trump 的良好关系之间取得平衡。同时，阿拉伯联合大公国已开始实施渐进式限制，驱逐了传统的贸易船只。然而，阿联酋继续收容数十万伊朗侨民，并保持不间断的双边航班营运，使完全切断伊朗区域经济联系的努力变得复杂。
像 hawala 这样无法追踪的系统和日益依赖的加密货币进一步削弱了金融遏制，使得完全孤立几乎不可能。尽管采取了这些规避措施，制裁和长达七个月的冲突已经产生了严重的国内后果。伊朗的货币正经历快速贬值，燃料短缺导致加油站大排长龙。尽管政府依然毫不妥协，但经济恶化正严重影响平民，持续的战争已经导致数千人死亡，而不断攀升的生活成本正考验著数百万人。
As the war in Iran reaches its seventh month, President Donald Trump has shifted from military action to implementing "Operation Economic Outcast," led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, to completely isolate Tehran. However, Iran's economy is already severely constrained following two prior rounds of "maximum pressure" sanctions initiated in 2018 and last year. Following the collapse of the 2015 nuclear agreement, Iran expanded its trade with the five BRICS nations and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to bypass the global financial system, although this yields significantly lower economic volume than full global integration.
Washington's primary objective is to halt Chinese purchases of Iranian oil, though Beijing demonstrates zero interest in complying. Regionally, Iranian gas continues to supply Turkey to heat its eastern provinces during winter, forcing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to balance domestic energy demands with maintaining favorable relations with Donald Trump. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates has initiated incremental restrictions by expelling traditional trading boats. However, the UAE continues to host hundreds of thousands of Iranian expatriates and maintains uninterrupted bilateral flight operations, complicating efforts to fully sever Iran's regional economic ties.
Financial containment is further undermined by untraceable systems like hawala and an increasing reliance on cryptocurrency, making complete isolation nearly impossible. Despite these evasive measures, the sanctions and the seven-month conflict have generated severe domestic consequences. Iran's currency is experiencing a rapid devaluation, and fuel shortages have caused extensive queues at gas stations. While the government remains uncompromising, the economic deterioration is severely impacting civilians, with the ongoing war having already killed thousands of individuals and the escalating cost of living testing millions more.