在美国快速经济增长以及对其科技股的高需求的推动下，亚洲和欧洲货币对美元面临历史性的贬值。韩元跌至17年来的最低点，日元则跌至40年来的最弱水平，这引来了美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特（Scott Bessent）的抱怨。与此同时，国际货币基金组织（IMF）估计，根据经济基本面，人民币被低估了16%。作为回应，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨（Friedrich Merz）建议重温1985年的《广场协议》，当时主要经济体通过协调货币干预，到1987年底成功使美元对主要贸易伙伴的货币贬值了约30%，这使乔治·索罗斯（George Soros）等交易员赚取了巨额利润。

然而，在今天复制当年的《广场协议》极难取得成功。一个主要障碍是全球外汇市场的急剧增长。虽然五个广场协议原始签署国的集体外汇储备已从1985年的1320亿美元（不到当时其集体国内生产总值的2%）增加了14倍，达到今天的1.9万亿美元（约占GDP的4%），但这在货币交易量的增长面前相形见绌。全球日均外汇交易量已经飙升了60倍，从1986年的2000亿美元增至2024年的12万亿美元。因此，这五个国家影响市场的能力已显著下降。为了获得足够的影响力，任何新协议都必须包括持有全球最大外汇储备（达3.4万亿美元）的中国。

然而，中国极不可能参与其中，因为北京将原始的《广场协议》视为遭受外国屈服的警示。中国决策者认为，协议后日元的升值导致日本央行长期维持过低利率，从而催生了最终破裂的资产泡沫，进而引发了日本长期的经济衰退和“失去的几十年”。此外，现代宏观经济条件与1985年有很大不同。当年的协议伴随着美国的财政整顿，这有助于将财政赤字从1986年占GDP的4.8%降低到1989年的2.7%，从而使美元走弱。如今，美国预算赤字约占GDP的6%，且国会缺乏推行财政紧缩的政治意愿，这使得协调一致的货币干预效果大打折扣。

Asian and European currencies have faced historic depreciation against the U.S. dollar, driven by America's rapid economic growth and high demand for its tech stocks. The Korean won hit a 17-year low, and the Japanese yen reached its weakest level in four decades, drawing complaints from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Meanwhile, the IMF estimated that the Chinese yuan is 16% undervalued based on economic fundamentals. In response, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz suggested reprising the 1985 Plaza Accord, where major economies coordinated currency interventions to successfully devalue the dollar by 30% against its trading partners' currencies by late 1987, enabling traders like George Soros to make massive profits.

However, replicating the original Plaza Accord today is highly unlikely to succeed. One major obstacle is the astronomical growth of the global foreign-exchange market. While the collective foreign-exchange reserves of the five original Plaza signatories have swollen 14-fold from $132 billion (under 2% of GDP) in 1985 to $1.9 trillion (4% of GDP) today, this is dwarfed by the volume of currency trading. Daily foreign-exchange turnover has surged 60-fold, from $200 billion in 1986 to $12 trillion in 2024. Consequently, the ability of these five countries to influence the market has significantly diminished. To achieve sufficient market influence, any new agreement must include China, which holds the world's largest reserves of $3.4 trillion.

Yet, China is highly unlikely to participate, as Beijing views the original Plaza Accord as a cautionary tale of foreign subjugation. Chinese policymakers believe that the yen's post-Plaza appreciation triggered Japan's prolonged recession and "lost decades" by forcing interest rates too low, inflating asset bubbles that eventually collapsed. Furthermore, modern macroeconomic conditions differ significantly from 1985. The original accord was accompanied by American fiscal restraint, which helped lower the budget deficit from 4.8% of GDP in 1986 to 2.7% in 1989, weakening the dollar. Today, the U.S. budget deficit is around 6% of GDP, and Congress lacks the political will for austerity, rendering coordinated currency intervention far less effective.

Source: A new Plaza Accord for global currencies wouldn’t work

Subtitle: The conditions and will for a deal are not what they were in 1985

Dateline: Jul 02, 2026 06:23 AM