全球经济失衡再次引发广泛关注，中国持续扩大外部顺差，而美国则面临巨大的财政与贸易赤字，国际货币基金组织（IMF）认为双边规模均已超标。西方舆论普遍将失衡归咎于人民币汇率低估，主张通过联合施压促使人民币升值。然而，G7专家报告与IMF政策文件明确指出，汇率低估并非失衡的根源，而是两国国内宏观经济政策配置的必然结果。中国抑制居民消费与房地产投资低迷导致高额储蓄和汇率承压；美国私营部门储蓄不足及不可持续的财政赤字则推高了美元实际汇率。

单纯依赖行政手段推动人民币名义升值不仅无法解决结构性失衡，反而会带来严重的经济与政治副作用。在经济层面，由于中国出口多以美元计价，短期名义升值难以迅速压低出口，却会降低进口价格并加剧国内通缩压力，削弱整体内需，这与吸收全球产品的再平衡目标背道而驰。在政治层面，参考1985年《广场协议》的历史经验，单方面强迫汇率调整极易引发对抗，而未能解决根本政策分歧。

实现全球经济再平衡需要中美两国同步实施国内宏观政策改革。中国需要通过扩大社会保障体系、提升养老金水平以及发展服务业，将居民收入占GDP的比重提高，从而促进消费吸收；而美国则必须遏制不可持续的财政赤字并提高国内储蓄率。正如前IMF首席经济学家及学者所强调的，超越汇率调整的表面症状，推进以中国消费主导增长和美国财政收缩为核心的综合政策包，才是解决全球经济失衡兼具可行性与有效性的根本途径。

Global economic imbalances have re-emerged as a major international concern, characterized by China’s large current-account surpluses and America’s massive external deficits, both of which the IMF assesses as excessive. Western policymakers often attribute these trade misalignments to an undervalued Chinese yuan, advocating for currency appreciation as the primary remedy. However, recent G7 and IMF policy frameworks emphasize that exchange rates are a symptom of domestic macroeconomic policies rather than the primary cause. China’s suppression of household consumption and real-estate downturn produce excess domestic savings, while America’s low private savings rate and unsustainable fiscal deficits drive its external borrowing.

Relying on nominal currency appreciation to resolve trade imbalances introduces severe economic and political flaws. Economically, forcing nominal yuan appreciation without underlying policy adjustments would fail to reduce Chinese exports rapidly—since most are priced in dollars—while lowering import prices and worsening domestic deflation. This reduces overall domestic demand in China, opposing the core objective of economic rebalancing. Politically, demanding currency concessions creates diplomatic friction; historical precedent from the 1985 Plaza Accord demonstrates that successful rebalancing requires concrete macroeconomic policy adjustments rather than simple exchange-rate mandates.

Sustainable global rebalancing requires coordinated domestic structural reforms in both major economies. China must raise the share of household income in GDP, strengthen its social safety net, and expand non-traded services to boost domestic consumption over tradable-sector investment. Concurrently, the United States must address its fiscal deficit and incentivize domestic savings. As former IMF chief economists Gita Gopinath and Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, along with Hélène Rey, argue, focusing on domestic structural policy packages—China pivoting to consumption-led growth and America restoring fiscal discipline—provides the only effective and achievable solution to global economic imbalances.

Source: Don’t blame global imbalances on the undervalued yua

Subtitle: Demanding that China revalue the yuan gets both the diagnosis and the cure wrong, write Gita Gopinath, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas and Hélène Rey

Dateline: 7月 30, 2026 05:36 上午