唐纳德·特朗普向伊朗提出了优厚且几乎无法拒绝的和平条件：以伊朗开放霍尔木兹海峡并放弃核野心为前提，换取数百亿美元的投资和收入。然而，过去一周战斗的升级表明，仅靠资金支持无法满足伊朗强硬派的胃口，他们更渴望获得海峡控制权、地区主导地位或推进核计划。一个月前签署的谅解备忘录规定了60天的和平过渡期，但执行进程刚刚过半（即30天）便已陷入危机，双方对条款的解读大相径庭，伊朗认为自己拥有管理权，而美国则坚持认为伊朗不能限制任何海上运输。

当前，美伊两国正频繁进行导弹和无人机交火，导致即使有美军保护，油轮依然不敢贸然航行，原油价格也在持续回升。在此期间，双方在浓缩铀和核材料等关键议题的谈判上毫无进展。此前，美国已兑现承诺允许伊朗石油在国际市场上销售，而德黑兰的温和派也知晓此提议的优越性，但强硬派最终赢得了主导权。新任最高领袖莫杰塔巴·哈梅内伊虽然未公开露面，但其强硬的表态表明他正倾向于向美国施压或已受制于好战势力。

面对僵局，特朗普表现得毫无章法，他曾提出由美国在海峡征收通行费这一愚蠢提议，虽然后来被行政官员纠正，但他仍在不断威胁要摧毁伊朗的桥梁和能源设施。此外，他还暗示将派兵占领作为伊朗石油几乎全部出口终端的哈尔克岛，但美军在岛上极易沦为伊朗导弹和无人机的靶子。鉴于妥协会损害美国利益并开创恶劣先例，美国已恢复对伊朗的石油制裁，目前唯一的选择是继续对等回击伊朗的打击并坚守下去。

Donald Trump offered highly generous peace terms to Iran: billions in investment and revenue in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz and abandoning nuclear ambitions. However, the recent escalation in fighting reveals that economic incentives are insufficient for Iranian hardliners, who desire control of the strait, regional dominance, or a nuclear weapons program. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed a month ago allowed a 60-day window to establish peace, but halfway through this period, the agreement itself has become a flashpoint of conflict, with both sides disagreeing over terms requiring Iran to ensure safe, free transit.

Currently, both nations are exchanging drone and missile strikes, driving oil prices up as commercial tankers remain hesitant to sail despite American security offers. Meanwhile, negotiations over nuclear materials and uranium enrichment have yielded no progress. Before the escalation, America honored its end of the MoU by permitting international sales of Iranian oil, and though Tehran moderates recognized the deal’s advantages, hardliners ultimately prevailed. The new, unseen supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued uncompromising pronouncements, suggesting he either supports pressuring America or is controlled by pro-war factions.

Trump appears to have no coherent plan, briefly proposing that America levy tolls in the strait—an idea later rescinded by administration advisors—while threatening to bomb Iranian infrastructure and hinting at deploying troops to seize Kharg Island, where soldiers would be exposed targets for Iranian missiles. Because acquiescing to Iran’s terms would set a dangerous precedent and abandon regional allies, the U.S. has reinstated its oil embargo. To demonstrate resolve, America has little choice but to match Iranian military strikes and endure the economic fallout of higher fuel prices ahead of the midterm elections.

Source: Donald Trump’s blind alley

Subtitle: America’s president looks bereft of good options for solving the stand-off in the Gulf

Dateline: Jul 16, 2026 06:53 AM