唐纳德·特朗普将加拿大视为寄生在“美国第51个州”上的忘恩负义者，不仅不断加征关税，还将安大略湖南岸更名为“美国湖”，而加拿大消费者则以抵制肯塔基波旁威士忌和不去拉斯维加斯作为回击。尽管加拿大只是一个经济平平、军力薄弱的中等强国，且地下石油储量超过全美的阿尔伯塔省将于10月19日就未来是否可能独立举行公投，但上任18个月的总理马克·卡尼依然保持强硬并声望高涨，民调显示阿尔伯塔省选民很可能会投票留下来。今年1月在达沃斯年会上呼吁“中等强国”团结应对威胁性大国的卡尼，如今在九个月后为其他中等强国展示了当霸权巨人抽走脚下地毯时的应对之道。

这种应对始于清醒的现实主义：随着中美两国利用或破坏权力共享机制、俄罗斯和伊朗等破坏者变得更加掠夺成性，中等强国永远无法取代霸权国家来维持联合国等强大常设机构，即便是欧盟也难以协调行动。然而，中等强国仍能通过单次具体合作减轻损害：正如日本在特朗普第一任期美国退出跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（TPP）后出面重振该协定一样，卡尼奔走全球达成新贸易协议并探讨欧盟准成员国地位；在国防上，加拿大正减少对美依赖并考虑订购瑞典“鹰狮”战斗机，正如挪威购买英国护卫舰、阿联酋采购乌克兰先进无人机一样。在乌克兰问题上，欧洲和加拿大在美国退缩后加大财政与军事支持，让普京的军队在顿巴斯付出惨重代价，尽管特朗普本周的“柴油外交”也凸显了中等强国力量的局限性。

加拿大最重要的经验在于卡尼在国内推行的务实改革：受低技能移民激增影响，加拿大人均收入从1980年代相当于美国的90%跌至2022年的71%，而卡尼正致力于提高生产率、开放经济，并将国防开支从占GDP仅1.3%的低水平提升至2%。他废除了不受欢迎的消费者碳税，承诺修建从阿尔伯塔省通往西海岸的输油管道，削减内部贸易壁垒，取消大幅提高资本利得税的计划，下调最低所得税率并计划削减联邦开支，同时在中期选举前针对美国摇摆州进口商品实施对等关税。卡尼成功打破了欧盟委员会前主席让-克洛德·容克所说的“改革后无法连任”的“容克魔咒”：两年前超过九成加拿大人认不出他的照片，如今其支持率接近70%，取代法国总统马克龙成为中间派偶像，并为其他中等强国树立了在2029年特朗普卸任前借外部危机推动国内改革的典范。

Donald Trump views Canada as a parasitic 51st state, ratcheting up tariffs and renaming the southern side of Lake Ontario “Lake America”, while Canadians retaliate by boycotting Kentucky bourbon and Las Vegas. Although Canada is a mid-size power with puny armed forces and faces an October 19th secession referendum in Alberta—a province holding more underground oil than the entire United States—Prime Minister Mark Carney has remained defiant during his 18 months in office, and polls suggest Albertans will vote to stay. Having argued at Davos in January that “middle powers” must confront threatening giants, Mr Carney’s leadership nine months on offers a blueprint for handling a hegemonic neighbour pulling the mat from under them.

These lessons begin with realism: because America and China are undermining shared norms while emboldened wreckers like Russia and Iran grow more predatory, middle powers cannot replace hegemons in sustaining institutions like the UN, and even the European Union struggles to co-ordinate action. Nevertheless, middle powers can mitigate damage through targeted initiatives: just as Japan revived the trans-Pacific TPP trade deal after Mr Trump’s first-term withdrawal, Mr Carney has pursued global trade agreements and floated associate EU membership, while trimming defence reliance on America by considering Swedish Gripen fighter jets, much as Norway buys British frigates and the United Arab Emirates purchases Ukrainian drones. Similarly, Europe and Canada rebuffed Mr Trump’s designs on Greenland and stepped up financial and military aid to Ukraine to exact a heavy toll on Russian forces in the Donbas, though Mr Trump’s recent diesel diplomacy underscores the limits of middle-power leverage.

Canada’s most vital lesson lies in domestic reform: after low-skilled immigration helped drag Canadian income per person from 90% of America’s level in the 1980s down to 71% in 2022, Mr Carney is boosting productivity, opening the economy, and raising defence spending from 1.3% of GDP to 2%. He has scrapped a consumer carbon tax, vowed to build an oil pipeline from Alberta to the west coast, cut internal trade barriers, cancelled a capital-gains tax hike, lowered the bottom income-tax rate, planned federal spending cuts, and targeted reciprocal tariffs on American swing-state imports ahead of the midterms. Defying Jean-Claude Juncker’s “Juncker curse” that reformers cannot get re-elected, Mr Carney—whose photograph over 90% of Canadians could not recognise two years ago—now enjoys an approval rating nearing 70%, replacing France’s Emmanuel Macron as the centrists’ pin-up and showing how democracies can harness external threats to pass overdue reforms before Mr Trump leaves office in 2029.

Source: Mark Carney shows middle powers how to handle a dangerous world

Subtitle: Canada is standing up to a bullying America

Dateline: Oct 15th 2026\n