高盛建议在未来几个月以日圆、瑞士法郎或欧元作为融资货币,并认为做空日圆是长期而言的首选,同时欧元对瑞士法郎也提供了极佳的风险调整后套利收益。
尽管今年G10套利交易回报率高达约8%并超越了债券和黄金,但巴克莱银行警告称,当前的低波动率与全球经济的高不确定性背道而驰,波动率随时可能上升并引发快速平仓。
According to Goldman Sachs, carry trades are experiencing their most compelling environment in over two decades, driven by high and divergent global interest rates alongside historically low currency volatility.
Goldman Sachs recommends funding these trades using the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, or euro in the coming months, identifying the yen as a top long-term funding candidate and the euro against the Swiss franc as a highly favorable pair.
Although G10 carry trades have returned around 8% this year, outperforming bonds and gold, Barclays warns that the current market calm conflicts with high global economic uncertainty, meaning volatility could rise and trigger rapid unwinding.