由于乌克兰防空拦截弹药严重匮乏，俄罗斯在7月份发射了创纪录的198枚弹道导弹和高超音速导弹，将空袭重心全面转向乌克兰的民用物流与商业供应链。包括高端超市Goodwine、零售连锁巨头Silpo以及核心私营邮政企业新邮政（Nova Poshta）在内的关键物流设施接连遇袭，仅在三周内就给乌克兰企业造成约5亿美元的直接经济损失，基辅等大城市超市货架再度出现物资短缺。

作为反击，乌克兰发起了为期40天的无人机纵深打击行动，重创俄罗斯炼油设施（瘫痪其30%以上运营产能，导致18个地区实施汽油配给制），并摧毁了电商巨头野莓（Wildberries）近三分之一的仓储设施（损失达20亿至40亿美元）。然而，俄罗斯自7月中旬起对黑海港口的封锁升级为直接猎杀民用货船——7月19日击沉一艘离开黑海港口的土耳其货船致10人死亡后，曾三年内转运2.1亿吨货物的敖德萨港口群在商业上已基本陷入瘫痪。

黑海出口通道的中断给乌克兰农业带来毁灭性打击，目前有5000万吨当季农产品滞留待运。投资机构Dragon Capital估计，海上封锁今年将直接拉低乌克兰0.6%的GDP；乌克兰农业综合企业俱乐部进一步警告，若当季农作物无法外运变现导致农民放弃冬季播种，农业部门损失或将扩大至100亿至120亿美元（约占乌克兰官方GDP的5%），对该国经济生存构成严峻考验。

Exploiting Ukraine’s critical depletion of air-defense interceptor missiles, Russia launched a record 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles in July, pivoting its aerial campaign toward paralyzing Ukraine’s civilian logistics and retail supply chains. Missile strikes targeting major distribution hubs—including upmarket supermarket Goodwine, retail chain Silpo, and key courier service Nova Poshta—inflicted roughly $500m in losses on Ukrainian businesses within three weeks, reviving supply shortages across Kyiv.

Ukraine responded with a 40-day deep drone offensive that knocked out upwards of 30% of Russia’s oil refining capacity (leaving 18 Russian regions rationing fuel) and destroyed nearly a third of Russian e-commerce giant Wildberries' warehouses ($2bn–$4bn in damages). However, Russia escalated the economic war by actively hunting commercial cargo vessels in the Black Sea; after sinking a Turkish-owned freighter departing Chornomorsk on July 19th (killing 10 people), shipping via Odesa’s deep-sea ports—which had moved 210m tonnes over three years—was brought to a commercial standstill.

This maritime blockade severely threatens Ukraine's agrarian economy, stranding 50m tonnes of unexported grain with limited overland transport alternatives. Investment firm Dragon Capital estimates the blockade will shave 0.6% off Ukraine's GDP this year. Furthermore, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club warns that if current harvests cannot be marketed and farmers forgo winter sowing, agricultural losses could reach $10bn–$12bn, representing approximately 5% of Ukraine's national GDP and dealing a profound blow to the nation's wartime economic resilience.

Source: Russian attacks are doing severe harm to Ukraine’s economy

Subtitle: Out of interceptors, Ukraine is no longer winning the aerial war

Dateline: 8月 20, 2026 03:30 上午 | KYIV