預測市場平台（如 Polymarket 和 Kalshi）的興起引發了對新型內線交易的擔憂。例如，一名年輕人透過實地計時超級盃國歌彩排，在預測市場上贏得巨額利潤。雖然這類行為可能沒有違反現有規則，但隨著地緣政治和軍事行動等高風險事件的賭注激增，越來越多具有異常特徵且疑似利用非公開資訊獲利的交易浮出檯面，迫使監管機構與平台重新思考公平性的界線。
美國當局和私人企業正積極介入以防止特權資訊遭濫用。例如，美國商品期貨交易委員會（CFTC）指控一名士兵利用有關委內瑞拉軍事行動的機密情報獲利，而以色列當局也對涉嫌利用軍事機密下注的人員提起訴訟。同時，許多內部人士開始採用更隱蔽的手法，透過多個匿名加密貨幣錢包和較少人關注的市場進行分散交易，這使得追蹤與執法變得更加困難。
儘管面臨這些挑戰，部分經濟學家與預測市場的支持者仍認為，內部人士的參與能帶來更有價值的隱藏資訊，從而提高市場定價的準確性。然而，隨著內線消息分享在匿名區塊鏈網路中變得日益普遍，預測市場可能最終會像傳統股票市場一樣，僅偶爾對極端且明顯的非法行為進行起訴，而難以完全根除利用資訊優勢獲利的行為。
The rise of prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi has sparked concerns about a new type of insider trading. For instance, a young man won massive profits on a prediction market by physically timing the Super Bowl national anthem rehearsals. While such actions may not violate existing rules, the surge in high-stakes bets tied to events like geopolitics and military actions has revealed a growing number of trades with unusual characteristics that seemingly exploit nonpublic information, forcing regulators and platforms to rethink the boundaries of fairness.
US authorities and private entities are actively stepping in to prevent the misuse of privileged information. For example, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged a soldier for allegedly profiting from classified intelligence about military operations in Venezuela, while Israeli authorities indicted individuals for purportedly using military secrets to place bets. Meanwhile, many insiders are adopting stealthier tactics, distributing their trades across multiple anonymous cryptocurrency wallets and less active markets, which makes tracking and enforcement significantly more difficult.
Despite these enforcement challenges, some economists and prediction market proponents argue that the participation of insiders brings valuable hidden information, thereby improving the accuracy of market pricing. However, as the sharing of inside information becomes increasingly common across anonymous blockchain networks, prediction markets might eventually settle into an equilibrium similar to traditional stock markets, where only extreme and obvious illegal activities are occasionally prosecuted while the broader exploitation of informational advantages remains hard to eradicate completely.