预测市场平台（如 Polymarket 和 Kalshi）的兴起引发了对新型内线交易的担忧。例如，一名年轻人透过实地计时超级杯国歌彩排，在预测市场上赢得巨额利润。虽然这类行为可能没有违反现有规则，但随著地缘政治和军事行动等高风险事件的赌注激增，越来越多具有异常特征且疑似利用非公开资讯获利的交易浮出台面，迫使监管机构与平台重新思考公平性的界线。
美国当局和私人企业正积极介入以防止特权资讯遭滥用。例如，美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）指控一名士兵利用有关委内瑞拉军事行动的机密情报获利，而以色列当局也对涉嫌利用军事机密下注的人员提起诉讼。同时，许多内部人士开始采用更隐蔽的手法，透过多个匿名加密货币钱包和较少人关注的市场进行分散交易，这使得追踪与执法变得更加困难。
尽管面临这些挑战，部分经济学家与预测市场的支持者仍认为，内部人士的参与能带来更有价值的隐藏资讯，从而提高市场定价的准确性。然而，随著内线消息分享在匿名区块链网路中变得日益普遍，预测市场可能最终会像传统股票市场一样，仅偶尔对极端且明显的非法行为进行起诉，而难以完全根除利用资讯优势获利的行为。
The rise of prediction market platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi has sparked concerns about a new type of insider trading. For instance, a young man won massive profits on a prediction market by physically timing the Super Bowl national anthem rehearsals. While such actions may not violate existing rules, the surge in high-stakes bets tied to events like geopolitics and military actions has revealed a growing number of trades with unusual characteristics that seemingly exploit nonpublic information, forcing regulators and platforms to rethink the boundaries of fairness.
US authorities and private entities are actively stepping in to prevent the misuse of privileged information. For example, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged a soldier for allegedly profiting from classified intelligence about military operations in Venezuela, while Israeli authorities indicted individuals for purportedly using military secrets to place bets. Meanwhile, many insiders are adopting stealthier tactics, distributing their trades across multiple anonymous cryptocurrency wallets and less active markets, which makes tracking and enforcement significantly more difficult.
Despite these enforcement challenges, some economists and prediction market proponents argue that the participation of insiders brings valuable hidden information, thereby improving the accuracy of market pricing. However, as the sharing of inside information becomes increasingly common across anonymous blockchain networks, prediction markets might eventually settle into an equilibrium similar to traditional stock markets, where only extreme and obvious illegal activities are occasionally prosecuted while the broader exploitation of informational advantages remains hard to eradicate completely.