6月25日，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基宣布发起无人机攻势，以迫使俄罗斯进行和平谈判，并利用对俄罗斯炼油厂的打击引发了十多个地区的汽油配给。这一针对战线后方20公里至200公里目标的后勤打击行动于2025年初构思，但在5月下旬单位和无人机库存建立后才正式启动。在埃隆·马斯克终止俄罗斯军队使用星链（Starlink）的协助下，乌克兰军队在三个月内摧毁了70多套防空系统，并将通往克里米亚的R-280公路货运量减少了71%。
尽管取得了这些战术成功，克里米亚距离被孤立还很遥远，地面上的军事现实依然充满挑战。在顿巴斯地区，丘陵地形阻碍了无人机的操作，俄罗斯军队与国内后勤枢纽保持着强有力的联系。乌克兰总参谋部估计在乌的俄军人数为721,300人，仅比年初减少了3,000人。此外，俄罗斯在火力上保持着显著优势，以二比一的比例压制乌克兰军队，并且每天发射多达90枚导弹和投掷300枚制导炸弹。
泽连斯基的40天期限在很大程度上是认知战和政治戏码，时间定在8月份潜在谈判之前，届时俄罗斯将决定其秋冬季战役。如果未能保证在8月进行谈判，可能会让俄罗斯对乌克兰的能源网发动毁灭性的冬季攻势。虽然无人机行动具有真正的战略影响——6月26日克里米亚宣布紧急状态就是明证——但其直接目标是维持国内士气，并向寻求切实成果的美国总统展示进展。
On June 25th, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a drone surge to compel Russia into peace negotiations, leveraging strikes on Russian refineries that have triggered petrol rationing in over a dozen regions. This logistical campaign, attacking targets 20km to 200km behind the front lines, was conceived in early 2025 but launched in late May after units and drone stocks were established. Assisted by Elon Musk’s termination of Russian Starlink access, Ukrainian forces have destroyed over 70 air-defence systems in three months and reduced freight traffic on the R-280 highway to Crimea by 71%.
Despite these tactical successes, Crimea remains far from isolated, and the military reality on the ground remains challenging. In the Donbas region, hilly terrain hinders drone operations, and Russian troops maintain strong connections to domestic supply hubs. Ukraine’s general staff estimates the Russian forces in Ukraine at 721,300, reflecting a minor decrease of only 3,000 since the beginning of the year. Furthermore, Russia maintains a significant advantage in firepower, outshelling Ukrainian forces two to one while deploying up to 90 missiles and 300 guided bombs daily.
Zelensky's 40-day deadline functions largely as cognitive warfare and political theater, timed ahead of potential negotiations in August when Russia decides on its autumn-winter campaign. Failing to secure talks in August could allow Russia to launch a devastating winter offensive against Ukraine's energy grid. While the drone operation has real strategic impact—evidenced by the emergency declaration in Crimea on June 26th—its immediate goal is to sustain domestic morale and demonstrate progress to international allies, particularly a US president seeking tangible outcomes.
Source: Volodymyr Zelensky’s surge is a bid to force peace talks
Subtitle: Ukrainian claims to be winning the drone war are partly propaganda and partly real
Dateline: Jul 02, 2026 06:24 AM | Kyiv