随著通膨恶化，市场关注焦点已转移至利率调升幅度。华尔街预期美联储在即将召开的会议上有超过 90% 的机率实施自 2023 年以来的首次升息，且市场已完全反映年底前将再次升息的预期。主席 Kevin Warsh 因在 7 月会议未清楚说明维持利率的决策而引发长天期债券殖利率飙升，此次会后面临为后续政策路径提供指引的强大压力。

Kevin Warsh 面临著迎合要求更激进紧缩之债券投资人，以及顺应主张美国应具备全球最低借贷成本的 President Donald Trump 之间的难题。在此同时，美债抛售潮已将殖利率推升至 2007 年以来的最高水准，使决策处境更为严峻复杂。

英国央行在周四会议前同样面对通膨挑战，英国 8 月通膨率升至五个月新高，且柴油与汽油成本达到自 2022 年以来的最高价。尽管市场预期本次基准利率维持不变，交易员已反映未来 12 个月内升息 4 次的预期，而 30 年期国债殖利率更攀升至 1998 年以来的最高水准。

As inflationary pressures worsen, focus has shifted toward the potential pace and magnitude of monetary tightening. Wall Street is currently pricing in a greater than 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement its first interest rate hike since 2023, with another rate increase fully priced in before year-end. Chairman Kevin Warsh faces intense scrutiny to deliver forward guidance during the post-meeting press conference after his failure to clearly justify July's rate hold triggered a sharp rise in long-term bond yields.

Kevin Warsh confronts a difficult policy dilemma between placating bond investors demanding more aggressive monetary tightening and addressing President Donald Trump, who repeatedly insists that the United States should maintain the world's lowest borrowing costs. This debate unfolds against a severe Treasury bond selloff that has propelled yields to their highest levels since 2007.

The Bank of England confronts similar inflationary headwinds ahead of its Thursday meeting, driven by UK petrol and diesel fuel prices reaching their highest levels since 2022 and pushing headline inflation to a five-month high in August. While official policy rates are projected to hold steady at this meeting, financial markets are pricing in four interest rate increases over the coming 12 months, and 30-year gilt yields have surged to their highest mark since 1998.