SpaceX股價在首次季度財報公佈後經歷劇烈波動，財報顯示AI方面的支出高於預期，導致股價一度下跌13%，隨後短暫反彈又再度回落逾10%至110美元附近，較六月中旬的收盤高點已下跌約38%。高估值與即將到來的解鎖壓力吸引了大量做空資金，目前可交易股份中有35%被賣空，空頭已獲得約53億美元的帳面利潤。許多投資者表示，在十二月全部解鎖完成之前，基於基本面和解鎖壓力，他們不願買入SpaceX股票。
儘管短期面臨壓力，華爾街分析師仍維持對SpaceX長期前景的樂觀看法。公司旗下Starlink衛星網路服務是目前唯一盈利的業務，季度營收超出分析師預期。市場關注的催化劑包括本月稍晚可能進行的第14次星艦火箭發射、明年啟動的軌道數據中心計畫，以及利用Starlink網路與美國主要電信運營商直接競爭的宏大計畫。摩根士丹利指出，若SpaceX股價跌至100美元，則意味著市場對其AI業務的估值為零。
SpaceX faces a pivotal moment as a lockup agreement expires on Thursday, releasing up to 911.5 million insider shares worth approximately $101 billion for trading. The unprecedented scale of the unlock—structured across nine staggered phases rather than a single traditional 180-day expiry—reflects the company's sprawling investor base accumulated over two decades as a private firm, compounded by the earlier acquisition of xAI (now SpaceXAI). Even seasoned backers like Baillie Gifford, which first invested in 2018, acknowledge the situation is without precedent and decline to predict the outcome.
The stock has already experienced extreme volatility since its record-breaking $86.2 billion IPO in June, with shares falling roughly 38% from their mid-June closing high and trading below the $135 IPO price. Short sellers have aggressively targeted the stock, with 35% of the available float sold short and bearish bets generating $5.3 billion in paper profits. Portfolio managers such as Aptus Capital Advisors' David Wagner have stated plainly that they are unwilling to purchase shares given the fundamental concerns and the persistent lockup overhang that will persist until the final unlock in early December, when tradeable shares will surge to 5.33 billion.
Despite near-term headwinds, Wall Street analysts remain bullish on SpaceX's long-term trajectory. The company's Starlink satellite-internet service delivered quarterly revenue that exceeded estimates as the sole profitable segment, while ambitious plans for orbital data centers launching as early as next year and direct competition with major US mobile carriers via Starlink sustain investor interest. The upcoming 14th Starship rocket launch, central to the orbital data center vision, is tentatively scheduled for later this month and is viewed as the next major catalyst. Morgan Stanley has noted that a $100 share price would effectively assign zero value to SpaceX's AI operations, underscoring the potential upside if execution meets ambition.