SpaceX股价在首次季度财报公布后经历剧烈波动，财报显示AI方面的支出高于预期，导致股价一度下跌13%，随后短暂反弹又再度回落逾10%至110美元附近，较六月中旬的收盘高点已下跌约38%。高估值与即将到来的解锁压力吸引了大量做空资金，目前可交易股份中有35%被卖空，空头已获得约53亿美元的帐面利润。许多投资者表示，在十二月全部解锁完成之前，基于基本面和解锁压力，他们不愿买入SpaceX股票。
尽管短期面临压力，华尔街分析师仍维持对SpaceX长期前景的乐观看法。公司旗下Starlink卫星网路服务是目前唯一盈利的业务，季度营收超出分析师预期。市场关注的催化剂包括本月稍晚可能进行的第14次星舰火箭发射、明年启动的轨道数据中心计划，以及利用Starlink网路与美国主要电信运营商直接竞争的宏大计划。摩根士丹利指出，若SpaceX股价跌至100美元，则意味著市场对其AI业务的估值为零。
SpaceX faces a pivotal moment as a lockup agreement expires on Thursday, releasing up to 911.5 million insider shares worth approximately $101 billion for trading. The unprecedented scale of the unlock—structured across nine staggered phases rather than a single traditional 180-day expiry—reflects the company's sprawling investor base accumulated over two decades as a private firm, compounded by the earlier acquisition of xAI (now SpaceXAI). Even seasoned backers like Baillie Gifford, which first invested in 2018, acknowledge the situation is without precedent and decline to predict the outcome.
The stock has already experienced extreme volatility since its record-breaking $86.2 billion IPO in June, with shares falling roughly 38% from their mid-June closing high and trading below the $135 IPO price. Short sellers have aggressively targeted the stock, with 35% of the available float sold short and bearish bets generating $5.3 billion in paper profits. Portfolio managers such as Aptus Capital Advisors' David Wagner have stated plainly that they are unwilling to purchase shares given the fundamental concerns and the persistent lockup overhang that will persist until the final unlock in early December, when tradeable shares will surge to 5.33 billion.
Despite near-term headwinds, Wall Street analysts remain bullish on SpaceX's long-term trajectory. The company's Starlink satellite-internet service delivered quarterly revenue that exceeded estimates as the sole profitable segment, while ambitious plans for orbital data centers launching as early as next year and direct competition with major US mobile carriers via Starlink sustain investor interest. The upcoming 14th Starship rocket launch, central to the orbital data center vision, is tentatively scheduled for later this month and is viewed as the next major catalyst. Morgan Stanley has noted that a $100 share price would effectively assign zero value to SpaceX's AI operations, underscoring the potential upside if execution meets ambition.