Anthropic正准备进行预计估值达两万亿美元或以上的史上最大规模IPO，但Fable 5需求低迷为其前景增添了不确定性。该公司七月营收未达最乐观预期，年化收入为650亿美元，低于投资者预测的800亿美元，但仍较年初增长近七倍。Anthropic在第二季度首次实现调整后营业利润，并预计第三季度可能再次盈利，目前拥有六千家年消费超过十万美元的客户。
竞争格局正在快速变化。来自中国等地的廉价开源模型为客户提供了更多选择，而OpenAI凭借七月推出的GPT 5.6重新获得动力，其季度年化收入已超过400亿美元且增长35%。Anthropic自身推出的较小但价格更低的Opus 5模型在企业支出方面已超越Fable 5。此外，特朗普政府的国安限制和数据留存规定也阻碍了Fable的推广采用。
Anthropic's US customers are increasingly opting for cheaper AI models over its most powerful offering, Fable 5. According to spending data from payments company Ramp covering 70,000 businesses, Fable 5 accounts for only about 11 per cent of total spending on Anthropic's tools more than two months after launch, breaking the historical pattern of enterprises defaulting to the most capable models. Investors attribute this shift to Fable's high pricing and the adequacy of older models for most business tasks, a trend that could fundamentally reshape how frontier AI labs allocate their development budgets.
Anthropic is approaching what is expected to be the largest IPO in history, with an anticipated valuation of $2 trillion or more, but the tepid demand for Fable 5 adds uncertainty to its outlook. July revenue fell short of the most bullish investor expectations, reaching $65 billion on an annualised basis versus projected $80 billion, though the company has still grown nearly sevenfold since the start of the year. Anthropic achieved its first adjusted operating profit in Q2 and expects to be profitable again in Q3, with 6,000 customers spending $100,000 or more annually.
The competitive landscape is shifting rapidly. Cheap open-weight models from China and elsewhere are giving customers more alternatives, while OpenAI has regained momentum with the July launch of GPT 5.6, which is priced significantly lower than Fable 5 and has driven a 35 per cent revenue increase for OpenAI in the current quarter. Anthropic's own smaller and cheaper Opus 5 model has already surpassed Fable in business spending since its late July launch. Additionally, Trump administration national security restrictions and data retention rules have further hampered Fable's adoption, making Anthropic's near-term trajectory difficult to predict.