本文由彭博专栏作家乔纳森·黑斯廷斯撰写，分析了俄罗斯总统普京在俄乌战争中面临的多重压力。文章指出，乌克兰的深度无人机打击已摧毁俄罗斯约三分之一的炼油产能，俄军每月伤亡约三万人，超过其补充速度。俄罗斯经济承压严重，2026年GDP增长预测仅为0.4%，国防和国家安全开支占国家预算的40%，是战前水平的两倍。尽管如此，普京的权力掌控依然稳固，没有任何迹象显示他会放弃其最大化的和平条件。

文章强调，尽管制裁和战场损失令俄罗斯处境艰难，但普京仍有若干有利因素。特朗普发动伊朗战争后，美国爱国者防空导弹对乌克兰的供应已经中断，俄罗斯正加大滑翔炸弹产量，可能在冬季打击乌克兰能源设施。俄罗斯还可能升级对欧洲的混合「灰色地带」攻击，包括无人机骚扰机场和攻击海底基础设施，试图瓦解欧洲对乌克兰的团结支持。

文章引用Quantum Strategy总裁大卫·罗奇的分析指出，普京的领导正进入一个「脆弱性日益增加的灰色地带」，但俄罗斯尚未进入崩溃区。现代历史表明，专制政权极难被推翻，尤其是在普京这种冷酷统治之下。即使出现克里姆林宫精英政变，新领导人也不太可能对西方更加友善。因此，对俄乌局势最可信的预测是「维持现状」——战争将继续拖延下去。

This article by Bloomberg Opinion columnist Max Hastings examines the mounting pressures on Vladimir Putin as the Russia-Ukraine war enters its fifth year. Ukraine's deep-penetration drone strikes have knocked out roughly one-third of Russian oil refining capacity, while Russian casualties have climbed to an estimated 30,000 per month, exceeding the replacement rate of 27,000. Russia's economy is suffering under sanctions, with 2026 GDP growth forecast at just 0.4% and the national budget deficit ballooning to $73 billion in the first half of the year alone. Despite these challenges, Putin's grip on power remains firm, with no sign of softening his maximalist peace demands.

Hastings notes that several factors are nonetheless tilting in Putin's favor. Since President Trump launched his Iran war, the supply of US Patriot air-defense missiles to Ukraine has stopped, leaving Ukrainian cities vulnerable. Russia is ramping up production of glide bombs to target Ukraine's energy infrastructure in the coming winter and is already disrupting Ukrainian grain exports through attacks on Odesa and Black Sea shipping. Putin is also expected to escalate hybrid 'grey zone' attacks on Europe, hoping to fracture European solidarity, with some right-wing parties like Germany's AfD already pushing for détente with Moscow.

The article cites Quantum Strategy President David Roche's assessment that Putin's leadership is entering a 'grey zone of increasing vulnerability,' though Russia has not reached a collapse point. Modern history demonstrates that autocracies are extraordinarily difficult to topple, particularly under rulers as ruthless as Putin. Even in the unlikely event of a Kremlin elite coup, the successor would probably be more extremist rather than more sympathetic to the West. The most credible forecast for the conflict, Hastings concludes, is simply 'more of the same'—a continued grinding war with no resolution in sight.