尽管2023年10月爆发的冲突导致20万巴勒斯坦劳工撤出、30万预备役军人被征召，并引发工资上涨与传统行业的投资困境，以色列经济表现依然超出各界预期。在4月至6月期间，该国国内生产总值（GDP）按年率计算激增近15%。继2024年GDP增长超过1%（为官方预测的两倍）以及2025年实现3.5%的强劲增长后，政府预计2026年经济增速将突破4%。得益于战时经济的韧性，以色列股市在2025年飙升了51%，位居全球表现最佳市场之列。

以色列经济的强劲动力主要源于其高附加值的科技部门，该部门在战前便已占据GDP的五分之一和总出口的一半，去年更贡献了近一半的GDP增长。一方面，至少800家以色列本土企业向政府供应网络安全与无人机等先进国防技术，并积极开拓寻求摆脱对美依赖的欧洲市场；另一方面，人工智能浪潮注入了庞大资金，英伟达自2019年收购迈络思（Mellanox）后，已在以色列建立其美国以外最大的研发中心，拥有6,000名员工，推动科技出口占比在战时进一步攀升。

然而，亮眼增长的背后潜藏着严峻的财政与人口结构隐忧。为维持战时开支，以色列公共债务占GDP比重已从2022年的60%攀升至去年的68%，国际货币基金组织（IMF）预测该比例最早要到2040年才能恢复至战前水平。更深远的挑战在于社会结构的剧变：男性就业率较低的极端正统派人口增长迅速，预计到2040年将占总人口的20%以上；与此同时，高素质世俗精英正因政治极化考虑移居海外，使得兼顾国防、科技创新与宗教诉求的矛盾愈发尖锐。

Despite the acute disruptions following the October 2023 attacks—which removed 200,000 Palestinian labourers, mobilised 300,000 military reservists, and triggered severe wage inflation alongside labour shortages in agriculture and construction—Israel’s economy has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Annualised GDP surged by nearly 15% between April and June. Following GDP growth of over 1% in 2024 (doubling official forecasts) and 3.5% in 2025, the government projects expansion will exceed 4% in 2026. Capital markets mirrored this momentum, with Israeli equities soaring by 51% in 2025 to rank among the world's top performers.

This economic vitality stems predominantly from Israel’s sophisticated technology sector, which accounted for a fifth of GDP and half of all exports prior to 2023 and generated nearly half of total GDP growth last year. The sector has capitalised on two major catalysts: booming wartime defence contracts—with the government procuring defence technologies from at least 800 domestic firms alongside rising European demand—and the artificial intelligence revolution. Notably, Nvidia has built its largest research hub outside the United States in Israel with 6,000 employees following its 2019 acquisition of Mellanox, elevating high-tech exports to record levels.

Beneath this headline growth, however, significant fiscal and demographic imbalances are mounting. Extensive wartime outlays pushed public debt from 60% of GDP in 2022 to 68% last year, and the IMF projects this debt ratio will not return to pre-war levels until 2040 at the earliest. In the long term, rapid demographic expansion among the ultra-Orthodox community—a group with low male employment that will comprise over 20% of the population by 2040—threatens productivity, while political polarisation risks spurring the emigration of secular tech professionals and complicating budgetary allocations between defence needs and coalition commitments.

Source: Israel’s war economy is thriving

Subtitle: But conflict is worsening its industrial divide

Dateline: Sep 24th 2026\n