阿鲁巴岛人口仅有108,000，却在不到15年内将人均GDP翻倍，并且是在已达到中国当前人均收入水平后实现的。同样目标下，中国计划到2035年将人均GDP提高到20,000美元，即从现在的13,000美元起年均增长4.4%。根据1970年以来185个经济体的数据，只有43个经济体在达到中国此阶段后提供了可比数据，且平均十年增长仅为3%。仅有十个经济体，包括阿鲁巴、日本、以色列、新加坡、韩国、香港、澳门、台湾、法国和意大利，年均增速超过4.4%。

若中国按照4.4%的目标增长，并且人口每年减少0.2%，2035年中国整体GDP将增长50%。如此中国经济规模有望逼近甚至超过美国。然而现实中，名义GDP受通胀及汇率影响。中国虽然“实际”增长快，但最近因持续通缩和人民币汇率走弱，2023年中国GDP以美元计仅为美国的64%，低于2020年的70%以上。官方目标以2020年价和汇率设定，但实际生活中的价格和汇率已发生变化，影响了全球排名。

因此，仅按中国的定义达到“中等发达水平”或许易行，但若要成为世界最大经济体，需提振需求、扭转通缩、保持人民币稳定。与其设定“实际”人均GDP翻倍的长期目标，更有效的是追求名义美元人均GDP三倍增长，才能在国际经济影响力上取得突破。

Aruba, with a population of 108,000, more than doubled its GDP per person in under 15 years after reaching the income level China now has. China aims to reach $20,000 GDP per person by 2035, requiring 4.4% average annual growth from its current $13,000 level. From 1950 to 2014, only 43 economies have comparable data after reaching this milestone, with an average 10-year growth of 3%. Only ten—such as Aruba, Japan, Israel, Singapore, South Korea, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, France, and Italy—achieved annual growth above 4.4%.

If China meets its 4.4% growth goal, and with its population shrinking 0.2% per year, total GDP could rise by 50% by 2035, potentially nearing or overtaking the US. However, nominal GDP is influenced by inflation and exchange rates. While China’s real growth has been fast, deflation and yuan depreciation have reduced its dollar GDP to 64% of America’s in 2023, down from over 70% in 2020. Official targets use 2020 prices and exchange rates, but those differ from current realities, affecting China’s global standing.

Achieving “moderately developed” status by China’s standards is possible, but to become the world’s largest economy, China must spur demand, end deflation, and stabilize the yuan. Rather than only aiming to double real GDP per person, it should target tripling nominal dollar GDP per person for true international economic impact.