尽管 2026 年其他外交危机频现，美中关系仍是美国战略核心。2025 年的关系以关税战开局、以 10 月停战告终，其间美国对半导体出口管制的部分回撤被视为战略让步。2026 年，美国试图通过软硬并用的方式稳定关系：一方面降低在台湾等问题上的公开对抗，另一方面推动盟友军费大幅增长、批准创纪录的对台军售，并投资关键矿产供应链，以在时间上换取战略调整空间。

然而，这一策略在执行层面暴露出致命矛盾。若美国正为潜在冲突做准备，却仍向中国出售如 Nvidia H200 等先进芯片，可能直接削弱其在人工智能和军事技术上的不对称优势。关键矿产和稀土方面的多项新计划虽已启动，但至少需要数年才能显著降低对中国的依赖，而在此期间，中国仍可能通过出口管制进行反制。长期结构性依赖，如医药原料领域，也未被根本解决。

此外，该政策可能疏远盟友并分散战略资源。台湾、日本、韩国虽被要求提高防务投入，但对“全面入侵台湾”的高度聚焦忽视了渐进式胁迫风险。对日本在台海问题上的支持显得犹豫，而对格陵兰的争议则削弱了跨大西洋团结。同时，美国将航母战斗群从南海调往中东，显示在应对伊朗等危机时对大国竞争的资源被稀释。整体来看，2026 年将检验这一策略能否在多重约束下维持一致性并避免战略失衡。

Despite multiple global crises in 2026, the US-China rivalry remains the core challenge for American strategy. Relations in 2025 began with tariff escalation and ended with an October truce, after partial US rollbacks of semiconductor export controls created perceptions of strategic retreat. In 2026, Washington aims to combine restraint and pressure: lowering rhetoric on Taiwan while pushing allies to sharply raise military spending, approving record arms sales to Taipei, and investing in critical mineral supply chains to buy time for adjustment.

Serious contradictions undermine this approach. If the US is preparing for conflict, selling advanced chips such as Nvidia’s H200 risks eroding its asymmetric advantage by accelerating China’s AI and military capabilities. New critical-mineral initiatives may take years to reduce dependence, leaving the US exposed to renewed Chinese export controls in the interim. Other structural vulnerabilities, including reliance on Chinese pharmaceutical inputs, remain unresolved.

The strategy also risks alienating allies and diluting focus. While Taipei, Tokyo, and Seoul face pressure to expand defense budgets, emphasis on a full-scale Taiwan invasion scenario neglects incremental coercion. Support for Japan after its Taiwan-related statements has been lukewarm, and disputes such as the Greenland episode have strained transatlantic unity. Meanwhile, shifting a carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East highlights how crises involving Iran and others divert resources from great-power competition. The year ahead will test whether this approach can maintain coherence under mounting strategic constraints.