美联储的资产负债表已从二十年前的不足1万亿美元膨胀至如今的6.7万亿美元，尽管其在国债市场中的份额已从2022年的26%降至12%。新任美联储主席凯文·沃什和财政部长斯科特·贝森特寻求缩小这一足迹，以减少市场扭曲并降低政府借贷成本。

为了实现这一目标，贝森特倾向于转向短期债务，这可能会在2028年底前将短期国债在总发行量中的比例从耶伦时期的22%推高至28%。该策略利用了当前的收益率利差，即一个月期国债的收益率为3.6%，而30年期国债的收益率超过5%，这有可能节省数十亿美元的利息支出。

然而，这种短期转型增加了展期风险和对突然加息的脆弱性，而美联储任由长期债券到期可能会推高基准的十年期国债收益率。监管机构必须在这些财政节省与金融稳定之间进行权衡，尤其是在通胀率持续高于美联储2%目标的情况下。

The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet has ballooned from under $1 trillion two decades ago to $6.7 trillion today, though its share of the Treasury market has declined from 26% in 2022 to 12%. New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seek to shrink this footprint to reduce market distortion and lower government borrowing costs.

To achieve this, Bessent is inclined to pivot to short-term debt, which could raise the share of Treasury bills in total issuance from Yellen’s 22% to 28% by the end of 2028. This strategy exploits current yield spreads, where one-month bills yield 3.6% compared to over 5% for 30-year bonds, potentially saving billions in interest payments.

However, this short-term shift increases rollover risk and vulnerability to sudden rate hikes, while the Fed letting long-term bonds mature could elevate the benchmark ten-year yield. Regulators must balance these fiscal savings against financial stability, particularly with inflation persisting above the Fed's 2% target.

Source: Partners in prime: The Fed and Treasury’s new relationship

Subtitle: Scott Bessent and the new Fed chair have talked about co-ordinating their work

Dateline: June 4th 2026