为了寻找美国国债的替代买家，特朗普政府希望利用已在过去两年中翻了一番多、达到3,250亿美元的稳定币市场。根据《天才法案》，这些货币必须由到期时间少于94天的短期国债支持，仅泰达币一家就持有1,170亿美元国债，位列美国债务的第18大持有者。

增长预测差异巨大：渣打银行预测在不到两年的时间内稳定币市场将达到2万亿美元（产生1万亿美元的短期国债需求），而摩根大通则预测到2027年底将达到更温和的5,000亿至7,500亿美元。由于自十月份以来增长率降至5%以下，稳定币紧跟波动的加密价格，这加剧了人们的怀疑。

尽管监管放松恢复了银行的做市商活动，使交易商持有的国债从2021年的2,000亿美元增加到2025年的5,420亿美元，但银行仍无法匹配国债发行的规模。在2008年至2025年期间，美国银行资产增长了80%至不足15万亿美元，而联邦债务暴增380%至超过30万亿美元，留下了巨大的资金缺口。

To find alternative buyers for US debt, the Trump administration hopes to tap into the stablecoin market, which has more than doubled to $325 billion over the past two years. Under the GENIUS Act, these coins must be backed by Treasury debt maturing in under 94 days, and Tether alone holds $117 billion, ranking as the 18th largest holder of US debt.

Growth forecasts vary widely: Standard Chartered predicts a $2 trillion stablecoin market in under two years (generating $1 trillion in bill demand), whereas JPMorgan Chase projects a more modest $500 billion to $750 billion by the end of 2027. Scepticism is bolstered by a recent slowdown of under 5% since October, highlighting how stablecoins track volatile crypto prices.

Although deregulation has revived banks' market-making activity, raising dealer holdings from $200 billion in 2021 to $542 billion in 2025, banks cannot match the scale of issuance. Between 2008 and 2025, US bank assets grew by 80% to under $15 trillion, while federal debt surged by 380% to over $30 trillion, leaving a massive funding gap.

Source: Neither banks nor stablecoins will rescue the Treasury market

Subtitle: More involvement from banks and crypto firms in the Treasury market is a good thing. Neither will outrun immense issuance

Dateline: June 4th 2026