美国国债长期以来一直是全球主要的安全资产，每年为美国政府节省超过国内生产总值（GDP）0.5%的利息支出。然而，2021至2022年高企的通货膨胀，以及2025年初因关税担忧导致十年期国债收益率在一周内飙升0.5个百分点，侵蚀了其避险资产的地位。

自2024年以来，三A级企业债与国债之间的利差已从2010至2019年的平均0.64个百分点降至平均0.34个百分点。此外，摩根大通预计，到2040年联邦债务占GDP的比例将从100%升至120%，这可能会使最受信赖的企业与国债的利差再减少0.5个百分点。

缺乏可靠的安全资产将使全球经济面临更高的波动性和借贷成本。历史先例警示我们，缺乏主导性的储备资产可能会导致全球金融的严重动荡。

US Treasury securities have long served as the world's primary riskless asset, saving the US government over 0.5% of GDP annually in interest payments. However, rising inflation in 2021-22 and tariff concerns in early 2025, which saw ten-year yields jump by 0.5 percentage points in a week, have eroded this safe-haven status.

The spread between AAA-rated corporate bonds and Treasuries has fallen to an average of 0.34 percentage points since 2024, down from 0.64 percentage points in 2010-19. Furthermore, JPMorgan Chase projects that federal debt will rise from 100% to 120% of GDP by 2040, potentially cutting spreads with top-tier firms by another 0.5 percentage points.

Without a reliable safe asset, the global economy faces increased volatility and higher borrowing costs. Historical precedents warn that the lack of a dominant reserve asset can lead to severe global financial instability.

Source: Imagining a world without a safe asset

Subtitle: No corner of finance would be left untouched

Dateline: June 4th 2026