全球AI热潮正引发一场内存芯片短缺，其成本将广泛转嫁给消费者。SK海力士、美光和三星三家公司合计占全球DRAM产量的90%以上，但正将产能转向利润更高的AI所需高带宽内存。结果是传统内存供应急剧收紧。64GB服务器内存价格已从2025年第三季度的255美元跃升至第四季度的450美元，并预计在2026年3月达到700美元。三星因此实现季度利润同比增长约3倍，而SK海力士已提前售罄其2026年内存产能。分析师预计此次内存紧缺将持续至2027年。
产能重新分配对消费电子造成直接冲击。IDC指出，每一片分配给AI芯片的晶圆，都意味着智能手机和笔记本电脑少一片可用内存。英特尔警告，内存短缺可能限制其2026年收入增长。联想已将内存库存提高至常规水平的约150%，但仍预计需在2026年平衡价格与供应。彭博情报估计，PC价格最高可能上涨20%，智能手机涨幅相近，且低端机型受冲击更大。中国厂商据报将2026年出货目标下调数千万部，全球PC和智能手机市场被预测将萎缩。
扩产难以在短期内缓解压力。美光利用美国《芯片法案》资金在爱达荷州建设的新厂要到2027年才投产，其在美国承诺的2000亿美元投资周期以十年计。其在台湾拟以18亿美元收购的晶圆厂，预计最快在2026年下半年形成“有意义”的产出。即便如此，DRAM产量在2026年预计仅同比增长24%，仍显著低于需求。同时，二手内存市场价格飙升，部分16GB内存条售价达160美元，回收企业收入同比增长约300%。内存紧缺正系统性推高科技产品成本。
The global AI boom is triggering a severe memory chip shortage whose costs are being passed broadly to consumers. SK Hynix, Micron, and Samsung together produce over 90% of global DRAM, but have redirected capacity toward higher-margin high-bandwidth memory for AI. This has sharply constrained supply of conventional memory. Prices for 64GB server memory rose from $255 in Q3 2025 to $450 in Q4 2025 and are projected to reach $700 by March 2026. Samsung reported roughly a tripling of quarterly profits, while SK Hynix has already sold out its entire 2026 output. Analysts expect the shortage to persist through 2027.
The reallocation is directly affecting consumer electronics. IDC noted that every wafer assigned to AI chips removes capacity from smartphones and laptops. Intel warned that memory shortages could limit its 2026 revenue growth. Lenovo has increased memory inventories to about 150% of normal levels but still anticipates difficult tradeoffs on pricing and availability in 2026. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates PC prices could rise by as much as 20%, with smartphones facing similar increases and lower-end models hit hardest. Chinese manufacturers are reportedly cutting 2026 shipment targets by tens of millions of units, and global PC and smartphone markets are projected to contract.
Capacity expansion will not relieve pressure soon. Micron’s new Idaho facility funded under the US Chips Act will not begin production until 2027, and its pledged $200 billion US investment spans decades. A planned $1.8 billion acquisition of a Taiwan fabrication site may yield meaningful output only in the second half of 2026. Even then, DRAM output in 2026 is forecast to rise just 24% year on year, well below demand. Meanwhile, secondhand memory prices have surged, with some 16GB modules selling for $160 and recyclers reporting revenue growth of around 300%. The memory crunch is structurally raising technology costs.