围绕马斯克拟将 SpaceX 与其人工智能公司 xAI 合并的计划，争议集中在财务现实与估值叙事的巨大反差。xAI 在过去一年估值飙升，市场押注其潜在的 AI 突破可能带来万亿美元级回报，但公司同时以每月高达约 10 亿美元的速度烧钱。合并后的实体若按马斯克设想、结合太空数据中心概念上市，估值可能达到或超过 1 万亿美元，但具体商业细节仍相当模糊。

这一操作被认为与 2016 年的 SolarCity 交易高度相似。当年，特斯拉以 26 亿美元收购了负债累累的 SolarCity，该公司由马斯克与其表亲创立，他本人是最大股东。尽管股东曾提起诉讼，法院最终裁定交易价格公允。不同之处在于，当时特斯拉具备足够规模吸收亏损；而如今，xAI 的持续高烧钱率意味着 SpaceX 可能难以轻松消化相关财务压力。

分析认为，此次合并更像一次“救助式并购”。马斯克已让特斯拉向 xAI 投入 20 亿美元，但若 SpaceX接手这一高亏损资产，可能会将其最稳定、最成功的业务与最大的不确定性捆绑在一起。这也解释了为何马斯克急于推动 SpaceX 在今年上市：通过公开市场融资来覆盖 xAI 的资金缺口，而非直接消耗 SpaceX 自身的现金流。

The controversy around Elon Musk’s plan to merge SpaceX with his artificial intelligence company xAI centers on a sharp gap between valuation narratives and financial reality. xAI’s valuation has surged over the past year on expectations of an AI breakthrough that could generate trillions of dollars, yet the company is burning cash at an estimated rate of up to $1 billion per month. Musk’s vision of a combined, publicly listed company tied to space-based AI data centers could imply a valuation of $1 trillion or more, though concrete details remain scarce.

The move echoes Musk’s 2016 SolarCity deal. That year, Tesla acquired the debt-laden solar installer for $2.6 billion; Musk had founded SolarCity with his cousins and was its largest shareholder. While shareholders sued, a court ultimately ruled the transaction fair. At the time, Tesla was able to absorb the losses. By contrast, xAI’s current burn rate suggests SpaceX would face a far heavier financial burden if it assumes responsibility for the AI venture.

As a result, critics view the proposed merger as a bailout. Tesla has already committed $2 billion to xAI, but folding the chatbot company into SpaceX risks loading Musk’s most stable and successful business with his weakest performer. This helps explain the urgency behind a SpaceX IPO planned for this year, which would allow public-market capital to offset xAI’s losses rather than draining SpaceX’s own cash reserves.