在超过两周的动荡之后，12月28日开始的抗议把伊朗部分地区推向“战区”般的状态，并在1月8日流亡的前王储礼萨·巴列维号召民众上街后达到更大规模；在互联网被切断的情况下，人权人士已确认超过2,400名抗议者死亡、数以万计被拘留，反对派也统计约150名安全人员被杀。其规模被称为该政权47年历史上最严重的国家暴力，远超2022年两个月约550人死亡，甚至可能超过1988年“数千名”囚犯被处决的惨剧。
镇压之所以升级，与可量化的经济崩塌相伴：自7月以来里亚尔下跌40%，年通胀接近50%，近三分之一人口处于贫困，而世界银行称仅约三分之一劳动年龄人口有工作。2025年经济原本预测萎缩1.7%，且雇用约一半劳动力的服务业与农业在收缩；在2018年制裁重启的背景下，官员据报正调查70亿美元失踪的石油收入，并且10月一家主要银行因内幕放贷而倒闭。
外部压力的数字化信号同样尖锐：1月12日宣布对与伊朗贸易国家征收25%关税，1月14日美方开始从卡塔尔乌代德基地和巴林部分撤离人员，而五角大楼在波斯湾没有航母部署（但有一艘在途中）。政治替代方案仍缺乏可验证的规模——巴列维曾声称有50,000名官员准备倒戈但迄今无人脱离——使得前景更像两种统计意义上的风险：革命卫队/巴斯基巩固权力，或在多族群省份出现失序与分裂并引发难民与武器外溢。
After more than two weeks of unrest, protests that began on December 28 pushed parts of Iran toward a “war zone” and grew after exiled heir Reza Pahlavi urged mass street action on January 8; with the internet cut, activists have confirmed more than 2,400 protester deaths, tens of thousands detained, and even opposition tallies put about 150 security personnel killed. This is described as the worst state violence in the regime’s 47-year history, dwarfing roughly 550 deaths over two months in 2022 and possibly exceeding the “thousands” executed in 1988.
The crackdown coincides with measurable economic collapse: since July the rial has plunged 40%, annual inflation is nearly 50%, almost one-third of Iranians live in poverty, and the World Bank says only about one-third of working-age adults are employed. The economy was forecast to shrink 1.7% in 2025, while the service sector that employs about half the workforce and agriculture are shrinking; amid sanctions reimposed in 2018, officials are reportedly probing $7bn in missing oil revenues and a major bank collapsed in October after insider lending.
External pressure also sharpened in numbers: on January 12 a 25% tariff scheme was announced for countries trading with Iran, and on January 14 the U.S. began withdrawing some personnel from Qatar’s al-Udeid and from Bahrain, while the Pentagon has no aircraft-carriers deployed in the Persian Gulf (though one is en route). Political alternatives remain unproven at scale—Pahlavi claimed 50,000 officials were ready to defect yet none have—leaving two high-risk paths: IRGC/Basij consolidation, or nationwide fragmentation across diverse provinces with refugee flows and loss-of-control risks for missiles and drones.
Source: Bereft of legitimacy, the reeling regime in Iran massacres its own people
Subtitle: It may linger for a while, but the Islamic Republic has been forever changed by weeks of protest
Dateline: 1月 15, 2026 07:52 上午 | DUBAI