1月13日，在唐纳德·特朗普用十天宣布美国对西半球的主导地位以及与邻国自由贸易无关紧要之后，加拿大总理马克·卡尼启程前往北京。这是他为吸引新的外国投资和贸易而进行的首次出访（在中国之后前往卡塔尔和瑞士），因为他认为特朗普已永久改变美国，而加拿大作为其第二大贸易伙伴和亲密盟友必须适应。
中国是加拿大第二大贸易伙伴，但关系近年一直冷淡；加拿大安全机构称中国间谍积极干预加拿大选举。加拿大与美国一道对中国电动汽车征收100%关税后，中国以对加拿大油菜籽油和海产品加征税费作为回应；同时，美国接管委内瑞拉石油业可能在中国供应中制造缺口，而Kpler数据显示2025年加拿大海运原油出口的40%流向中国，若拟议的从阿尔伯塔油砂到西海岸的管道建成，这一比例很容易上升。
美国的新《国家安全战略》要求美国成为唯一参与西半球事务的超级大国，使加拿大对华独立政策更难；但再平衡似乎正在发生。加拿大统计局数据显示，10月仅67%的出口流向美国（在特朗普关税之前高达76%），为自1997年以来最低占比（不含新冠时期），而对世界其他地区的出口跃升15.6%至创纪录高位，其中对中国更大的石油出货占了显著部分。
On January 13th, after a remarkable ten days in which Donald Trump declared America’s dominance of the western hemisphere and the irrelevance of free trade with its neighbours, Canada’s prime minister, Mark Carney, left for Beijing. It was the first trip (to Qatar and Switzerland after China) in a drive to drum up new foreign investment and trade, because he believes Trump has permanently changed the United States and Canada, as its second-largest trading partner and close ally, must adapt.
China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner, but relations have been glacial in recent years; Canada’s security agencies say China’s spooks actively interfere with Canada’s elections. After Canada joined the United States in applying 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, China reciprocated with levies on Canadian rape-seed oil and seafood; meanwhile, America’s takeover of Venezuela’s oil industry may create a supply gap for China, and Kpler data suggest 40% of Canada’s seaborne crude exports went to China in 2025, a share that could easily rise if a proposed pipeline from the Albertan tar sands to the west coast is built.
America’s new National Security Strategy expects the United States to be the only superpower involved in the western hemisphere, making an independent China policy harder for Canada; but a rebalancing looks likely. Statistics Canada data show that only 67% of exports went to the United States in October (down from as high as 76% before Trump’s tariffs), the lowest share since 1997 excluding the covid-19 period, while exports to the rest of the world jumped by 15.6% to a record high, with larger oil shipments to China making up a striking portion of the rise.
Source: Mark Carney is on a mission to trade with the world
Subtitle: Diversifying trade relationships while sustaining those with America will be a tricky balance for Canada’s prime minister
Dateline: 1月 15, 2026 10:05 上午 | ON BOARD CANFORCE-ONE